estimates: run 77 from efed18a
3 changed files+195−171
README.mdmodified+25−25View file
@@ -21,33 +21,33 @@ Fetch it from a browser or a script (raw.githubusercontent.com sends
2121
2222 https://raw.githubusercontent.com/concept-collection/timeseries-entropy/estimates/estimates.json
2323
24-## Current state (68 runs, generated 2026-08-09T05:42:03Z)
24+## Current state (69 runs, generated 2026-08-09T07:45:20Z)
2525
2626 | cell | sigma | M | mean | se | pasts | predicted |
2727 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
28-| bp300-6000_s1 | 1 | 512 | 0.9351 | 0.0052 | 544 | 0.9513 |
29-| bp300-6000_s16 | 16 | 512 | 2.5454 | 0.0095 | 544 | 2.5680 |
30-| bp300-6000_s2 | 2 | 512 | 1.3117 | 0.0050 | 544 | 1.3319 |
31-| bp300-6000_s32 | 32 | 512 | 2.9590 | 0.0188 | 544 | 2.9938 |
32-| bp300-6000_s4 | 4 | 512 | 1.7200 | 0.0057 | 544 | 1.7342 |
33-| bp300-6000_s8 | 8 | 512 | 2.1346 | 0.0095 | 544 | 2.1476 |
34-| lp3000_s1 | 1 | 512 | 0.4761 | 0.0100 | 544 | 0.6166 |
35-| lp3000_s16 | 16 | 512 | 1.4494 | 0.0081 | 544 | 1.4888 |
36-| lp3000_s2 | 2 | 512 | 0.7593 | 0.0117 | 544 | 0.8251 |
37-| lp3000_s32 | 32 | 512 | 1.6561 | 0.0090 | 544 | 1.7179 |
38-| lp3000_s4 | 4 | 512 | 0.9875 | 0.0082 | 544 | 1.0415 |
39-| lp3000_s8 | 8 | 512 | 1.2233 | 0.0091 | 544 | 1.2632 |
40-| ma8_s1 | 1 | 512 | 0.4772 | 0.0089 | 544 | 0.6100 |
41-| ma8_s16 | 16 | 512 | 3.1866 | 0.0116 | 544 | 3.1777 |
42-| ma8_s2 | 2 | 512 | 0.9727 | 0.0044 | 544 | 0.9825 |
43-| ma8_s32 | 32 | 512 | 4.0838 | 0.0101 | 544 | 4.1125 |
44-| ma8_s4 | 4 | 512 | 1.5582 | 0.0047 | 544 | 1.5529 |
45-| ma8_s8 | 8 | 512 | 2.3026 | 0.0064 | 544 | 2.3064 |
46-| none_s1 | 1 | 512 | 2.1069 | 0.0033 | 544 | 2.1048 |
47-| none_s16 | 16 | 512 | 6.0338 | 0.0215 | 544 | 6.0473 |
48-| none_s2 | 2 | 512 | 3.0669 | 0.0041 | 544 | 3.0620 |
49-| none_s32 | 32 | 512 | 7.0801 | 0.0457 | 544 | 7.0472 |
50-| none_s4 | 4 | 512 | 4.0377 | 0.0059 | 544 | 4.0508 |
51-| none_s8 | 8 | 512 | 5.0739 | 0.0139 | 544 | 5.0480 |
28+| bp300-6000_s1 | 1 | 512 | 0.9339 | 0.0052 | 552 | 0.9513 |
29+| bp300-6000_s16 | 16 | 512 | 2.5458 | 0.0094 | 552 | 2.5680 |
30+| bp300-6000_s2 | 2 | 512 | 1.3120 | 0.0050 | 552 | 1.3319 |
31+| bp300-6000_s32 | 32 | 512 | 2.9586 | 0.0186 | 552 | 2.9938 |
32+| bp300-6000_s4 | 4 | 512 | 1.7202 | 0.0056 | 552 | 1.7342 |
33+| bp300-6000_s8 | 8 | 512 | 2.1340 | 0.0094 | 552 | 2.1476 |
34+| lp3000_s1 | 1 | 512 | 0.4760 | 0.0099 | 552 | 0.6166 |
35+| lp3000_s16 | 16 | 512 | 1.4492 | 0.0080 | 552 | 1.4888 |
36+| lp3000_s2 | 2 | 512 | 0.7597 | 0.0116 | 552 | 0.8251 |
37+| lp3000_s32 | 32 | 512 | 1.6566 | 0.0089 | 552 | 1.7179 |
38+| lp3000_s4 | 4 | 512 | 0.9855 | 0.0082 | 552 | 1.0415 |
39+| lp3000_s8 | 8 | 512 | 1.2234 | 0.0091 | 552 | 1.2632 |
40+| ma8_s1 | 1 | 512 | 0.4770 | 0.0088 | 552 | 0.6100 |
41+| ma8_s16 | 16 | 512 | 3.1850 | 0.0114 | 552 | 3.1777 |
42+| ma8_s2 | 2 | 512 | 0.9723 | 0.0043 | 552 | 0.9825 |
43+| ma8_s32 | 32 | 512 | 4.0857 | 0.0102 | 552 | 4.1125 |
44+| ma8_s4 | 4 | 512 | 1.5576 | 0.0046 | 552 | 1.5529 |
45+| ma8_s8 | 8 | 512 | 2.3025 | 0.0063 | 552 | 2.3064 |
46+| none_s1 | 1 | 512 | 2.1071 | 0.0033 | 552 | 2.1048 |
47+| none_s16 | 16 | 512 | 6.0326 | 0.0213 | 552 | 6.0473 |
48+| none_s2 | 2 | 512 | 3.0666 | 0.0041 | 552 | 3.0620 |
49+| none_s32 | 32 | 512 | 7.0816 | 0.0455 | 552 | 7.0472 |
50+| none_s4 | 4 | 512 | 4.0385 | 0.0059 | 552 | 4.0508 |
51+| none_s8 | 8 | 512 | 5.0731 | 0.0137 | 552 | 5.0480 |
5252
5353 [wf]: https://github.com/concept-collection/timeseries-entropy/blob/main/.github/workflows/estimates.yml
estimates.jsonmodified+146−146View file
@@ -5,10 +5,10 @@
55 "M": 512,
66 "highres_szego": -4.782567960178533,
77 "id": "bp300-6000_s1",
8- "last_utc": "2026-08-09T05:35:29Z",
9- "mean": 0.9350667131881046,
10- "n_pasts": 544,
11- "n_runs": 68,
8+ "last_utc": "2026-08-09T07:37:22Z",
9+ "mean": 0.9339162739351445,
10+ "n_pasts": 552,
11+ "n_runs": 69,
1212 "params": {
1313 "filter": "bandpass",
1414 "high": 6000.0,
@@ -18,18 +18,18 @@
1818 "taps": 101
1919 },
2020 "predicted": 0.9512549259549268,
21- "sd": 0.1215494603034605,
22- "se": 0.005211390116719754
21+ "sd": 0.12253923829142671,
22+ "se": 0.005215616343488975
2323 },
2424 {
2525 "L": 101,
2626 "M": 512,
2727 "highres_szego": -0.7825679601785338,
2828 "id": "bp300-6000_s16",
29- "last_utc": "2026-08-09T05:39:13Z",
30- "mean": 2.5453701968849014,
31- "n_pasts": 544,
32- "n_runs": 68,
29+ "last_utc": "2026-08-09T07:42:53Z",
30+ "mean": 2.5458248969294646,
31+ "n_pasts": 552,
32+ "n_runs": 69,
3333 "params": {
3434 "filter": "bandpass",
3535 "high": 6000.0,
@@ -39,18 +39,18 @@
3939 "taps": 101
4040 },
4141 "predicted": 2.56797969986038,
42- "sd": 0.2221792829775933,
43- "se": 0.009525858169658586
42+ "sd": 0.2212358495133447,
43+ "se": 0.00941642308680972
4444 },
4545 {
4646 "L": 101,
4747 "M": 512,
4848 "highres_szego": -3.782567960178534,
4949 "id": "bp300-6000_s2",
50- "last_utc": "2026-08-09T05:36:11Z",
51- "mean": 1.3116980405373568,
52- "n_pasts": 544,
53- "n_runs": 68,
50+ "last_utc": "2026-08-09T07:37:56Z",
51+ "mean": 1.3119608439677886,
52+ "n_pasts": 552,
53+ "n_runs": 69,
5454 "params": {
5555 "filter": "bandpass",
5656 "high": 6000.0,
@@ -60,18 +60,18 @@
6060 "taps": 101
6161 },
6262 "predicted": 1.3318639472861573,
63- "sd": 0.11674748800793942,
64- "se": 0.005005507253075907
63+ "sd": 0.11646036487250754,
64+ "se": 0.0049568823086134405
6565 },
6666 {
6767 "L": 101,
6868 "M": 512,
6969 "highres_szego": 0.21743203982146625,
7070 "id": "bp300-6000_s32",
71- "last_utc": "2026-08-09T05:42:02Z",
72- "mean": 2.959018525169643,
73- "n_pasts": 544,
74- "n_runs": 68,
71+ "last_utc": "2026-08-09T07:45:20Z",
72+ "mean": 2.95856753960894,
73+ "n_pasts": 552,
74+ "n_runs": 69,
7575 "params": {
7676 "filter": "bandpass",
7777 "high": 6000.0,
@@ -81,18 +81,18 @@
8181 "taps": 101
8282 },
8383 "predicted": 2.9937688408517453,
84- "sd": 0.43876459194905343,
85- "se": 0.018811876682473222
84+ "sd": 0.4362763159237356,
85+ "se": 0.01856915315727235
8686 },
8787 {
8888 "L": 101,
8989 "M": 512,
9090 "highres_szego": -2.782567960178534,
9191 "id": "bp300-6000_s4",
92- "last_utc": "2026-08-09T05:36:55Z",
93- "mean": 1.719990574280325,
94- "n_pasts": 544,
95- "n_runs": 68,
92+ "last_utc": "2026-08-09T07:39:49Z",
93+ "mean": 1.7201529397857402,
94+ "n_pasts": 552,
95+ "n_runs": 69,
9696 "params": {
9797 "filter": "bandpass",
9898 "high": 6000.0,
@@ -102,18 +102,18 @@
102102 "taps": 101
103103 },
104104 "predicted": 1.734166393696377,
105- "sd": 0.13197336506047322,
106- "se": 0.005658311346091742
105+ "sd": 0.13226189617532688,
106+ "se": 0.0056294401444891284
107107 },
108108 {
109109 "L": 101,
110110 "M": 512,
111111 "highres_szego": -1.7825679601785338,
112112 "id": "bp300-6000_s8",
113- "last_utc": "2026-08-09T05:37:51Z",
114- "mean": 2.134579830514649,
115- "n_pasts": 544,
116- "n_runs": 68,
113+ "last_utc": "2026-08-09T07:40:50Z",
114+ "mean": 2.134020745302418,
115+ "n_pasts": 552,
116+ "n_runs": 69,
117117 "params": {
118118 "filter": "bandpass",
119119 "high": 6000.0,
@@ -123,18 +123,18 @@
123123 "taps": 101
124124 },
125125 "predicted": 2.1476021059762167,
126- "sd": 0.22176115177676803,
127- "se": 0.009507930942322218
126+ "sd": 0.22039996422155167,
127+ "se": 0.00938084544612952
128128 },
129129 {
130130 "L": 101,
131131 "M": 512,
132132 "highres_szego": -7.756237076152649,
133133 "id": "lp3000_s1",
134- "last_utc": "2026-08-09T05:28:35Z",
135- "mean": 0.4760511400929051,
136- "n_pasts": 544,
137- "n_runs": 68,
134+ "last_utc": "2026-08-09T07:29:21Z",
135+ "mean": 0.47595212172315815,
136+ "n_pasts": 552,
137+ "n_runs": 69,
138138 "params": {
139139 "filter": "lowpass",
140140 "high": 3000.0,
@@ -143,18 +143,18 @@
143143 "taps": 101
144144 },
145145 "predicted": 0.616561114498688,
146- "sd": 0.23207599058959616,
147- "se": 0.009950176007915484
146+ "sd": 0.23282782934325347,
147+ "se": 0.009909810513541395
148148 },
149149 {
150150 "L": 101,
151151 "M": 512,
152152 "highres_szego": -3.7562370761526487,
153153 "id": "lp3000_s16",
154- "last_utc": "2026-08-09T05:33:20Z",
155- "mean": 1.4494186354590033,
156- "n_pasts": 544,
157- "n_runs": 68,
154+ "last_utc": "2026-08-09T07:34:37Z",
155+ "mean": 1.4492200708910274,
156+ "n_pasts": 552,
157+ "n_runs": 69,
158158 "params": {
159159 "filter": "lowpass",
160160 "high": 3000.0,
@@ -163,18 +163,18 @@
163163 "taps": 101
164164 },
165165 "predicted": 1.4888184418209351,
166- "sd": 0.18834031115968466,
167- "se": 0.008075024222296447
166+ "sd": 0.18713357099194117,
167+ "se": 0.007964933721554792
168168 },
169169 {
170170 "L": 101,
171171 "M": 512,
172172 "highres_szego": -6.756237076152649,
173173 "id": "lp3000_s2",
174- "last_utc": "2026-08-09T05:29:25Z",
175- "mean": 0.7592861318730053,
176- "n_pasts": 544,
177- "n_runs": 68,
174+ "last_utc": "2026-08-09T07:30:01Z",
175+ "mean": 0.759699282878149,
176+ "n_pasts": 552,
177+ "n_runs": 69,
178178 "params": {
179179 "filter": "lowpass",
180180 "high": 3000.0,
@@ -183,18 +183,18 @@
183183 "taps": 101
184184 },
185185 "predicted": 0.8251241884518832,
186- "sd": 0.2736713110300585,
187- "se": 0.011733560658937625
186+ "sd": 0.2719445627468092,
187+ "se": 0.011574729252127682
188188 },
189189 {
190190 "L": 101,
191191 "M": 512,
192192 "highres_szego": -2.7562370761526487,
193193 "id": "lp3000_s32",
194- "last_utc": "2026-08-09T05:34:50Z",
195- "mean": 1.656063577558942,
196- "n_pasts": 544,
197- "n_runs": 68,
194+ "last_utc": "2026-08-09T07:36:36Z",
195+ "mean": 1.656603059066441,
196+ "n_pasts": 552,
197+ "n_runs": 69,
198198 "params": {
199199 "filter": "lowpass",
200200 "high": 3000.0,
@@ -203,18 +203,18 @@
203203 "taps": 101
204204 },
205205 "predicted": 1.71791605587854,
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207- "se": 0.008982891884352638
206+ "sd": 0.20843045317132924,
207+ "se": 0.008871389223554977
208208 },
209209 {
210210 "L": 101,
211211 "M": 512,
212212 "highres_szego": -5.756237076152649,
213213 "id": "lp3000_s4",
214- "last_utc": "2026-08-09T05:30:02Z",
215- "mean": 0.98751516737061,
216- "n_pasts": 544,
217- "n_runs": 68,
214+ "last_utc": "2026-08-09T07:31:02Z",
215+ "mean": 0.9854986878168533,
216+ "n_pasts": 552,
217+ "n_runs": 69,
218218 "params": {
219219 "filter": "lowpass",
220220 "high": 3000.0,
@@ -223,18 +223,18 @@
223223 "taps": 101
224224 },
225225 "predicted": 1.04149876351225,
226- "sd": 0.1915477780451756,
227- "se": 0.008212543230484733
226+ "sd": 0.19344972034467273,
227+ "se": 0.008233766890842811
228228 },
229229 {
230230 "L": 101,
231231 "M": 512,
232232 "highres_szego": -4.756237076152649,
233233 "id": "lp3000_s8",
234- "last_utc": "2026-08-09T05:31:07Z",
235- "mean": 1.2233214472643643,
236- "n_pasts": 544,
237- "n_runs": 68,
234+ "last_utc": "2026-08-09T07:33:20Z",
235+ "mean": 1.2234037973722391,
236+ "n_pasts": 552,
237+ "n_runs": 69,
238238 "params": {
239239 "filter": "lowpass",
240240 "high": 3000.0,
@@ -243,222 +243,222 @@
243243 "taps": 101
244244 },
245245 "predicted": 1.2631675560846525,
246- "sd": 0.21260422610022292,
247- "se": 0.00911533099287657
246+ "sd": 0.21269495929996363,
247+ "se": 0.009052898658178014
248248 },
249249 {
250250 "L": 8,
251251 "M": 512,
252252 "highres_szego": -0.9529044148193548,
253253 "id": "ma8_s1",
254- "last_utc": "2026-08-09T05:27:18Z",
255- "mean": 0.477210325227977,
256- "n_pasts": 544,
257- "n_runs": 68,
254+ "last_utc": "2026-08-09T07:27:46Z",
255+ "mean": 0.47695072331824406,
256+ "n_pasts": 552,
257+ "n_runs": 69,
258258 "params": {
259259 "filter": "moving-average",
260260 "sigma": 1.0,
261261 "width": 8
262262 },
263263 "predicted": 0.6099987154839898,
264- "sd": 0.20755142046255803,
265- "se": 0.008898693738411666
264+ "sd": 0.20680910189877028,
265+ "se": 0.008802379930583986
266266 },
267267 {
268268 "L": 8,
269269 "M": 512,
270270 "highres_szego": 3.0470955851806454,
271271 "id": "ma8_s16",
272- "last_utc": "2026-08-09T05:27:37Z",
273- "mean": 3.1866189794052504,
274- "n_pasts": 544,
275- "n_runs": 68,
272+ "last_utc": "2026-08-09T07:28:04Z",
273+ "mean": 3.1850226729342475,
274+ "n_pasts": 552,
275+ "n_runs": 69,
276276 "params": {
277277 "filter": "moving-average",
278278 "sigma": 16.0,
279279 "width": 8
280280 },
281281 "predicted": 3.1776500292335506,
282- "sd": 0.2705227818757695,
283- "se": 0.0115985685851275
282+ "sd": 0.2689475862229326,
283+ "se": 0.011447169460203651
284284 },
285285 {
286286 "L": 8,
287287 "M": 512,
288288 "highres_szego": 0.04709558518064521,
289289 "id": "ma8_s2",
290- "last_utc": "2026-08-09T05:27:22Z",
291- "mean": 0.9726926443197311,
292- "n_pasts": 544,
293- "n_runs": 68,
290+ "last_utc": "2026-08-09T07:27:51Z",
291+ "mean": 0.9722952870792475,
292+ "n_pasts": 552,
293+ "n_runs": 69,
294294 "params": {
295295 "filter": "moving-average",
296296 "sigma": 2.0,
297297 "width": 8
298298 },
299299 "predicted": 0.9825176804091631,
300- "sd": 0.10185729646509736,
301- "se": 0.004367095557551316
300+ "sd": 0.1021152410044045,
301+ "se": 0.004346313289750144
302302 },
303303 {
304304 "L": 8,
305305 "M": 512,
306306 "highres_szego": 4.047095585180645,
307307 "id": "ma8_s32",
308- "last_utc": "2026-08-09T05:27:41Z",
309- "mean": 4.083792674836751,
310- "n_pasts": 544,
311- "n_runs": 68,
308+ "last_utc": "2026-08-09T07:28:11Z",
309+ "mean": 4.085679679941519,
310+ "n_pasts": 552,
311+ "n_runs": 69,
312312 "params": {
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314314 "sigma": 32.0,
315315 "width": 8
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317317 "predicted": 4.112486639362294,
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319- "se": 0.010135041894585292
318+ "sd": 0.24054939943318576,
319+ "se": 0.01023846236187971
320320 },
321321 {
322322 "L": 8,
323323 "M": 512,
324324 "highres_szego": 1.0470955851806452,
325325 "id": "ma8_s4",
326- "last_utc": "2026-08-09T05:27:27Z",
327- "mean": 1.5582288276224023,
328- "n_pasts": 544,
329- "n_runs": 68,
326+ "last_utc": "2026-08-09T07:27:55Z",
327+ "mean": 1.5575727897887788,
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330330 "params": {
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333333 "width": 8
334334 },
335335 "predicted": 1.5529090070448803,
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336+ "sd": 0.10818132749274084,
337+ "se": 0.00460450307671733
338338 },
339339 {
340340 "L": 8,
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342342 "highres_szego": 2.0470955851806454,
343343 "id": "ma8_s8",
344- "last_utc": "2026-08-09T05:27:32Z",
345- "mean": 2.30262634644365,
346- "n_pasts": 544,
347- "n_runs": 68,
344+ "last_utc": "2026-08-09T07:28:01Z",
345+ "mean": 2.3024895925837527,
346+ "n_pasts": 552,
347+ "n_runs": 69,
348348 "params": {
349349 "filter": "moving-average",
350350 "sigma": 8.0,
351351 "width": 8
352352 },
353353 "predicted": 2.3064317412363535,
354- "sd": 0.14935947080941522,
355- "se": 0.00640373448036214
354+ "sd": 0.14886884876724252,
355+ "se": 0.006336278986982584
356356 },
357357 {
358358 "L": 1,
359359 "M": 512,
360360 "highres_szego": 2.047095585180641,
361361 "id": "none_s1",
362- "last_utc": "2026-08-09T05:26:54Z",
363- "mean": 2.106852416059929,
364- "n_pasts": 544,
365- "n_runs": 68,
362+ "last_utc": "2026-08-09T07:27:37Z",
363+ "mean": 2.1071471885993076,
364+ "n_pasts": 552,
365+ "n_runs": 69,
366366 "params": {
367367 "filter": "none",
368368 "sigma": 1.0
369369 },
370370 "predicted": 2.1048326603976193,
371- "sd": 0.0769057925636826,
372- "se": 0.0032973086534837113
371+ "sd": 0.07653520241071625,
372+ "se": 0.0032575545442532464
373373 },
374374 {
375375 "L": 1,
376376 "M": 512,
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442442 {
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448- "mean": 5.073897674425749,
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450- "n_runs": 68,
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451451 "params": {
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454454 },
455455 "predicted": 5.048034228800837,
456- "sd": 0.3246699155859982,
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458458 }
459459 ],
460460 "estimand": "H(z_{M+1} | z_1..z_M) in bits/sample, for x ~ iid N(0, sigma^2) -> y = h * x -> z = round(y)",
461- "generated": "2026-08-09T05:42:03Z",
461+ "generated": "2026-08-09T07:45:20Z",
462462 "settings": {
463463 "n0": 128,
464464 "pasts_per_run": 8,
@@ -466,5 +466,5 @@
466466 "reps": 8,
467467 "thin": "auto"
468468 },
469- "total_runs": 68
469+ "total_runs": 69
470470 }
runs.jsonlmodified+24−0View file
@@ -1630,3 +1630,27 @@
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