estimates: run 35 from efed18a
3 changed files+195−171
README.mdmodified+25−25View file
@@ -21,33 +21,33 @@ Fetch it from a browser or a script (raw.githubusercontent.com sends
2121
2222 https://raw.githubusercontent.com/concept-collection/timeseries-entropy/estimates/estimates.json
2323
24-## Current state (27 runs, generated 2026-08-04T15:12:49Z)
24+## Current state (28 runs, generated 2026-08-04T18:36:14Z)
2525
2626 | cell | sigma | M | mean | se | pasts | predicted |
2727 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
28-| bp300-6000_s1 | 1 | 512 | 0.9393 | 0.0077 | 216 | 0.9513 |
29-| bp300-6000_s16 | 16 | 512 | 2.5423 | 0.0145 | 216 | 2.5680 |
30-| bp300-6000_s2 | 2 | 512 | 1.3182 | 0.0084 | 216 | 1.3319 |
31-| bp300-6000_s32 | 32 | 512 | 2.9782 | 0.0380 | 216 | 2.9938 |
32-| bp300-6000_s4 | 4 | 512 | 1.7184 | 0.0091 | 216 | 1.7342 |
33-| bp300-6000_s8 | 8 | 512 | 2.1442 | 0.0150 | 216 | 2.1476 |
34-| lp3000_s1 | 1 | 512 | 0.4726 | 0.0170 | 216 | 0.6166 |
35-| lp3000_s16 | 16 | 512 | 1.4520 | 0.0113 | 216 | 1.4888 |
36-| lp3000_s2 | 2 | 512 | 0.7407 | 0.0198 | 216 | 0.8251 |
37-| lp3000_s32 | 32 | 512 | 1.6485 | 0.0133 | 216 | 1.7179 |
38-| lp3000_s4 | 4 | 512 | 1.0124 | 0.0116 | 216 | 1.0415 |
39-| lp3000_s8 | 8 | 512 | 1.2189 | 0.0131 | 216 | 1.2632 |
40-| ma8_s1 | 1 | 512 | 0.4821 | 0.0141 | 216 | 0.6100 |
41-| ma8_s16 | 16 | 512 | 3.2050 | 0.0226 | 216 | 3.1777 |
42-| ma8_s2 | 2 | 512 | 0.9715 | 0.0082 | 216 | 0.9825 |
43-| ma8_s32 | 32 | 512 | 4.0811 | 0.0169 | 216 | 4.1125 |
44-| ma8_s4 | 4 | 512 | 1.5616 | 0.0086 | 216 | 1.5529 |
45-| ma8_s8 | 8 | 512 | 2.2998 | 0.0103 | 216 | 2.3064 |
46-| none_s1 | 1 | 512 | 2.1041 | 0.0035 | 216 | 2.1048 |
47-| none_s16 | 16 | 512 | 6.0019 | 0.0268 | 216 | 6.0473 |
48-| none_s2 | 2 | 512 | 3.0606 | 0.0054 | 216 | 3.0620 |
49-| none_s32 | 32 | 512 | 6.9963 | 0.0537 | 216 | 7.0472 |
50-| none_s4 | 4 | 512 | 4.0382 | 0.0096 | 216 | 4.0508 |
51-| none_s8 | 8 | 512 | 5.0637 | 0.0179 | 216 | 5.0480 |
28+| bp300-6000_s1 | 1 | 512 | 0.9401 | 0.0075 | 224 | 0.9513 |
29+| bp300-6000_s16 | 16 | 512 | 2.5415 | 0.0140 | 224 | 2.5680 |
30+| bp300-6000_s2 | 2 | 512 | 1.3198 | 0.0082 | 224 | 1.3319 |
31+| bp300-6000_s32 | 32 | 512 | 2.9777 | 0.0367 | 224 | 2.9938 |
32+| bp300-6000_s4 | 4 | 512 | 1.7152 | 0.0092 | 224 | 1.7342 |
33+| bp300-6000_s8 | 8 | 512 | 2.1406 | 0.0146 | 224 | 2.1476 |
34+| lp3000_s1 | 1 | 512 | 0.4737 | 0.0168 | 224 | 0.6166 |
35+| lp3000_s16 | 16 | 512 | 1.4517 | 0.0110 | 224 | 1.4888 |
36+| lp3000_s2 | 2 | 512 | 0.7462 | 0.0193 | 224 | 0.8251 |
37+| lp3000_s32 | 32 | 512 | 1.6478 | 0.0130 | 224 | 1.7179 |
38+| lp3000_s4 | 4 | 512 | 1.0122 | 0.0113 | 224 | 1.0415 |
39+| lp3000_s8 | 8 | 512 | 1.2198 | 0.0128 | 224 | 1.2632 |
40+| ma8_s1 | 1 | 512 | 0.4795 | 0.0138 | 224 | 0.6100 |
41+| ma8_s16 | 16 | 512 | 3.2014 | 0.0218 | 224 | 3.1777 |
42+| ma8_s2 | 2 | 512 | 0.9724 | 0.0079 | 224 | 0.9825 |
43+| ma8_s32 | 32 | 512 | 4.0837 | 0.0169 | 224 | 4.1125 |
44+| ma8_s4 | 4 | 512 | 1.5612 | 0.0083 | 224 | 1.5529 |
45+| ma8_s8 | 8 | 512 | 2.2986 | 0.0100 | 224 | 2.3064 |
46+| none_s1 | 1 | 512 | 2.1051 | 0.0034 | 224 | 2.1048 |
47+| none_s16 | 16 | 512 | 5.9972 | 0.0261 | 224 | 6.0473 |
48+| none_s2 | 2 | 512 | 3.0609 | 0.0053 | 224 | 3.0620 |
49+| none_s32 | 32 | 512 | 7.0169 | 0.0543 | 224 | 7.0472 |
50+| none_s4 | 4 | 512 | 4.0364 | 0.0093 | 224 | 4.0508 |
51+| none_s8 | 8 | 512 | 5.0660 | 0.0177 | 224 | 5.0480 |
5252
5353 [wf]: https://github.com/concept-collection/timeseries-entropy/blob/main/.github/workflows/estimates.yml
estimates.jsonmodified+146−146View file
@@ -5,10 +5,10 @@
55 "M": 512,
66 "highres_szego": -4.78256796018064,
77 "id": "bp300-6000_s1",
8- "last_utc": "2026-08-04T14:58:30Z",
9- "mean": 0.9393060518748774,
10- "n_pasts": 216,
11- "n_runs": 27,
8+ "last_utc": "2026-08-04T18:25:48Z",
9+ "mean": 0.9400774608734219,
10+ "n_pasts": 224,
11+ "n_runs": 28,
1212 "params": {
1313 "filter": "bandpass",
1414 "high": 6000.0,
@@ -18,18 +18,18 @@
1818 "taps": 101
1919 },
2020 "predicted": 0.9512549259549268,
21- "sd": 0.11366420049834845,
22- "se": 0.007733869256732087
21+ "sd": 0.11264213683515732,
22+ "se": 0.007526219345558347
2323 },
2424 {
2525 "L": 101,
2626 "M": 512,
2727 "highres_szego": -0.7825679601806399,
2828 "id": "bp300-6000_s16",
29- "last_utc": "2026-08-04T15:06:58Z",
30- "mean": 2.5423371412645253,
31- "n_pasts": 216,
32- "n_runs": 27,
29+ "last_utc": "2026-08-04T18:33:09Z",
30+ "mean": 2.5414899721710524,
31+ "n_pasts": 224,
32+ "n_runs": 28,
3333 "params": {
3434 "filter": "bandpass",
3535 "high": 6000.0,
@@ -39,18 +39,18 @@
3939 "taps": 101
4040 },
4141 "predicted": 2.56797969986038,
42- "sd": 0.2136135293654789,
43- "se": 0.014534559697234826
42+ "sd": 0.21013243623046685,
43+ "se": 0.014040063968259475
4444 },
4545 {
4646 "L": 101,
4747 "M": 512,
4848 "highres_szego": -3.7825679601806397,
4949 "id": "bp300-6000_s2",
50- "last_utc": "2026-08-04T14:59:48Z",
51- "mean": 1.3181882420361342,
52- "n_pasts": 216,
53- "n_runs": 27,
50+ "last_utc": "2026-08-04T18:26:57Z",
51+ "mean": 1.3197654882262122,
52+ "n_pasts": 224,
53+ "n_runs": 28,
5454 "params": {
5555 "filter": "bandpass",
5656 "high": 6000.0,
@@ -60,18 +60,18 @@
6060 "taps": 101
6161 },
6262 "predicted": 1.3318639472861573,
63- "sd": 0.12332916560318481,
64- "se": 0.008391486836972476
63+ "sd": 0.12250915923282074,
64+ "se": 0.008185487510552656
6565 },
6666 {
6767 "L": 101,
6868 "M": 512,
6969 "highres_szego": 0.2174320398193601,
7070 "id": "bp300-6000_s32",
71- "last_utc": "2026-08-04T15:12:49Z",
72- "mean": 2.9782285420908843,
73- "n_pasts": 216,
74- "n_runs": 27,
71+ "last_utc": "2026-08-04T18:36:14Z",
72+ "mean": 2.9777493648103146,
73+ "n_pasts": 224,
74+ "n_runs": 28,
7575 "params": {
7676 "filter": "bandpass",
7777 "high": 6000.0,
@@ -81,18 +81,18 @@
8181 "taps": 101
8282 },
8383 "predicted": 2.9937688408517453,
84- "sd": 0.5586881509354177,
85- "se": 0.03801391375363349
84+ "sd": 0.5491064181028836,
85+ "se": 0.036688715811064906
8686 },
8787 {
8888 "L": 101,
8989 "M": 512,
9090 "highres_szego": -2.7825679601806397,
9191 "id": "bp300-6000_s4",
92- "last_utc": "2026-08-04T15:00:52Z",
93- "mean": 1.7183637039593886,
94- "n_pasts": 216,
95- "n_runs": 27,
92+ "last_utc": "2026-08-04T18:28:04Z",
93+ "mean": 1.7152433793810782,
94+ "n_pasts": 224,
95+ "n_runs": 28,
9696 "params": {
9797 "filter": "bandpass",
9898 "high": 6000.0,
@@ -102,18 +102,18 @@
102102 "taps": 101
103103 },
104104 "predicted": 1.734166393696377,
105- "sd": 0.1330377208253296,
106- "se": 0.009052070349024912
105+ "sd": 0.13751270700184315,
106+ "se": 0.009187954213012984
107107 },
108108 {
109109 "L": 101,
110110 "M": 512,
111111 "highres_szego": -1.78256796018064,
112112 "id": "bp300-6000_s8",
113- "last_utc": "2026-08-04T15:04:44Z",
114- "mean": 2.144186311331695,
115- "n_pasts": 216,
116- "n_runs": 27,
113+ "last_utc": "2026-08-04T18:30:07Z",
114+ "mean": 2.1406155097095945,
115+ "n_pasts": 224,
116+ "n_runs": 28,
117117 "params": {
118118 "filter": "bandpass",
119119 "high": 6000.0,
@@ -123,18 +123,18 @@
123123 "taps": 101
124124 },
125125 "predicted": 2.1476021059762167,
126- "sd": 0.2209742394922155,
127- "se": 0.01503539258487487
126+ "sd": 0.21885194696634908,
127+ "se": 0.014622660785294622
128128 },
129129 {
130130 "L": 101,
131131 "M": 512,
132132 "highres_szego": -7.756237076152647,
133133 "id": "lp3000_s1",
134- "last_utc": "2026-08-04T14:48:27Z",
135- "mean": 0.47264947857632233,
136- "n_pasts": 216,
137- "n_runs": 27,
134+ "last_utc": "2026-08-04T18:15:37Z",
135+ "mean": 0.4736702213296638,
136+ "n_pasts": 224,
137+ "n_runs": 28,
138138 "params": {
139139 "filter": "lowpass",
140140 "high": 3000.0,
@@ -143,18 +143,18 @@
143143 "taps": 101
144144 },
145145 "predicted": 0.616561114498688,
146- "sd": 0.24999204416247933,
147- "se": 0.017009804109816458
146+ "sd": 0.25085104269739866,
147+ "se": 0.01676069030158334
148148 },
149149 {
150150 "L": 101,
151151 "M": 512,
152152 "highres_szego": -3.756237076152648,
153153 "id": "lp3000_s16",
154- "last_utc": "2026-08-04T14:53:55Z",
155- "mean": 1.4519686178341633,
156- "n_pasts": 216,
157- "n_runs": 27,
154+ "last_utc": "2026-08-04T18:22:32Z",
155+ "mean": 1.4516845590411267,
156+ "n_pasts": 224,
157+ "n_runs": 28,
158158 "params": {
159159 "filter": "lowpass",
160160 "high": 3000.0,
@@ -163,18 +163,18 @@
163163 "taps": 101
164164 },
165165 "predicted": 1.4888184418209351,
166- "sd": 0.16625189205271645,
167- "se": 0.011312008452817365
166+ "sd": 0.1651222981919118,
167+ "se": 0.011032697620551004
168168 },
169169 {
170170 "L": 101,
171171 "M": 512,
172172 "highres_szego": -6.756237076152647,
173173 "id": "lp3000_s2",
174- "last_utc": "2026-08-04T14:49:45Z",
175- "mean": 0.7406760013304517,
176- "n_pasts": 216,
177- "n_runs": 27,
174+ "last_utc": "2026-08-04T18:18:04Z",
175+ "mean": 0.7462472951088063,
176+ "n_pasts": 224,
177+ "n_runs": 28,
178178 "params": {
179179 "filter": "lowpass",
180180 "high": 3000.0,
@@ -183,18 +183,18 @@
183183 "taps": 101
184184 },
185185 "predicted": 0.8251241884518832,
186- "sd": 0.29156025887542286,
187- "se": 0.019838162875515455
186+ "sd": 0.2892223928374537,
187+ "se": 0.01932448397465524
188188 },
189189 {
190190 "L": 101,
191191 "M": 512,
192192 "highres_szego": -2.756237076152648,
193193 "id": "lp3000_s32",
194- "last_utc": "2026-08-04T14:56:33Z",
195- "mean": 1.6484950811927872,
196- "n_pasts": 216,
197- "n_runs": 27,
194+ "last_utc": "2026-08-04T18:24:27Z",
195+ "mean": 1.6477641967968413,
196+ "n_pasts": 224,
197+ "n_runs": 28,
198198 "params": {
199199 "filter": "lowpass",
200200 "high": 3000.0,
@@ -203,18 +203,18 @@
203203 "taps": 101
204204 },
205205 "predicted": 1.71791605587854,
206- "sd": 0.1947856370835665,
207- "se": 0.013253483891046743
206+ "sd": 0.19407620980696538,
207+ "se": 0.012967262214666452
208208 },
209209 {
210210 "L": 101,
211211 "M": 512,
212212 "highres_szego": -5.756237076152647,
213213 "id": "lp3000_s4",
214- "last_utc": "2026-08-04T14:50:47Z",
215- "mean": 1.0124460377719124,
216- "n_pasts": 216,
217- "n_runs": 27,
214+ "last_utc": "2026-08-04T18:19:02Z",
215+ "mean": 1.0122429469799243,
216+ "n_pasts": 224,
217+ "n_runs": 28,
218218 "params": {
219219 "filter": "lowpass",
220220 "high": 3000.0,
@@ -223,18 +223,18 @@
223223 "taps": 101
224224 },
225225 "predicted": 1.04149876351225,
226- "sd": 0.17100411513011016,
227- "se": 0.011635356277358847
226+ "sd": 0.16962140625133937,
227+ "se": 0.011333306922416207
228228 },
229229 {
230230 "L": 101,
231231 "M": 512,
232232 "highres_szego": -4.756237076152647,
233233 "id": "lp3000_s8",
234- "last_utc": "2026-08-04T14:52:02Z",
235- "mean": 1.2189474797035031,
236- "n_pasts": 216,
237- "n_runs": 27,
234+ "last_utc": "2026-08-04T18:20:34Z",
235+ "mean": 1.2198382105247103,
236+ "n_pasts": 224,
237+ "n_runs": 28,
238238 "params": {
239239 "filter": "lowpass",
240240 "high": 3000.0,
@@ -243,222 +243,222 @@
243243 "taps": 101
244244 },
245245 "predicted": 1.2631675560846525,
246- "sd": 0.19280599531861017,
247- "se": 0.01311878633000103
246+ "sd": 0.1908758852071736,
247+ "se": 0.012753431532900643
248248 },
249249 {
250250 "L": 8,
251251 "M": 512,
252252 "highres_szego": -0.9529044148193548,
253253 "id": "ma8_s1",
254- "last_utc": "2026-08-04T14:46:23Z",
255- "mean": 0.4821045580340597,
256- "n_pasts": 216,
257- "n_runs": 27,
254+ "last_utc": "2026-08-04T18:10:16Z",
255+ "mean": 0.4794936902228822,
256+ "n_pasts": 224,
257+ "n_runs": 28,
258258 "params": {
259259 "filter": "moving-average",
260260 "sigma": 1.0,
261261 "width": 8
262262 },
263263 "predicted": 0.6099987154839898,
264- "sd": 0.20719453031631005,
265- "se": 0.014097802132516102
264+ "sd": 0.2062551197980208,
265+ "se": 0.013780999867003726
266266 },
267267 {
268268 "L": 8,
269269 "M": 512,
270270 "highres_szego": 3.0470955851806454,
271271 "id": "ma8_s16",
272- "last_utc": "2026-08-04T14:47:02Z",
273- "mean": 3.205030505268175,
274- "n_pasts": 216,
275- "n_runs": 27,
272+ "last_utc": "2026-08-04T18:10:48Z",
273+ "mean": 3.2013958026160556,
274+ "n_pasts": 224,
275+ "n_runs": 28,
276276 "params": {
277277 "filter": "moving-average",
278278 "sigma": 16.0,
279279 "width": 8
280280 },
281281 "predicted": 3.1776500292335506,
282- "sd": 0.33162406394809696,
283- "se": 0.02256415953058156
282+ "sd": 0.3265494227426054,
283+ "se": 0.021818501066993498
284284 },
285285 {
286286 "L": 8,
287287 "M": 512,
288288 "highres_szego": 0.04709558518064521,
289289 "id": "ma8_s2",
290- "last_utc": "2026-08-04T14:46:39Z",
291- "mean": 0.9715093379469187,
292- "n_pasts": 216,
293- "n_runs": 27,
290+ "last_utc": "2026-08-04T18:10:28Z",
291+ "mean": 0.9723751401140791,
292+ "n_pasts": 224,
293+ "n_runs": 28,
294294 "params": {
295295 "filter": "moving-average",
296296 "sigma": 2.0,
297297 "width": 8
298298 },
299299 "predicted": 0.9825176804091631,
300- "sd": 0.12003720448047867,
301- "se": 0.008167497253536096
300+ "sd": 0.11848420650535096,
301+ "se": 0.007916559044407063
302302 },
303303 {
304304 "L": 8,
305305 "M": 512,
306306 "highres_szego": 4.047095585180645,
307307 "id": "ma8_s32",
308- "last_utc": "2026-08-04T14:47:08Z",
309- "mean": 4.081122432862177,
310- "n_pasts": 216,
311- "n_runs": 27,
308+ "last_utc": "2026-08-04T18:10:57Z",
309+ "mean": 4.083653014074685,
310+ "n_pasts": 224,
311+ "n_runs": 28,
312312 "params": {
313313 "filter": "moving-average",
314314 "sigma": 32.0,
315315 "width": 8
316316 },
317317 "predicted": 4.112486639362294,
318- "sd": 0.24899461674850834,
319- "se": 0.016941937770380548
318+ "sd": 0.25331983368622574,
319+ "se": 0.016925643338007373
320320 },
321321 {
322322 "L": 8,
323323 "M": 512,
324324 "highres_szego": 1.0470955851806452,
325325 "id": "ma8_s4",
326- "last_utc": "2026-08-04T14:46:44Z",
327- "mean": 1.5615912355192318,
328- "n_pasts": 216,
329- "n_runs": 27,
326+ "last_utc": "2026-08-04T18:10:37Z",
327+ "mean": 1.5612246574790567,
328+ "n_pasts": 224,
329+ "n_runs": 28,
330330 "params": {
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332332 "sigma": 4.0,
333333 "width": 8
334334 },
335335 "predicted": 1.5529090070448803,
336- "sd": 0.1258130125904075,
337- "se": 0.008560491218023724
336+ "sd": 0.12429226299734349,
337+ "se": 0.008304626142193922
338338 },
339339 {
340340 "L": 8,
341341 "M": 512,
342342 "highres_szego": 2.0470955851806454,
343343 "id": "ma8_s8",
344- "last_utc": "2026-08-04T14:46:57Z",
345- "mean": 2.2997901367690843,
346- "n_pasts": 216,
347- "n_runs": 27,
344+ "last_utc": "2026-08-04T18:10:43Z",
345+ "mean": 2.2985786318566004,
346+ "n_pasts": 224,
347+ "n_runs": 28,
348348 "params": {
349349 "filter": "moving-average",
350350 "sigma": 8.0,
351351 "width": 8
352352 },
353353 "predicted": 2.3064317412363535,
354- "sd": 0.1507432821133254,
355- "se": 0.01025678120361282
354+ "sd": 0.14957722269178234,
355+ "se": 0.009994048574604255
356356 },
357357 {
358358 "L": 1,
359359 "M": 512,
360360 "highres_szego": 2.047095585180641,
361361 "id": "none_s1",
362- "last_utc": "2026-08-04T14:46:12Z",
363- "mean": 2.1041324901076432,
364- "n_pasts": 216,
365- "n_runs": 27,
362+ "last_utc": "2026-08-04T18:10:05Z",
363+ "mean": 2.1051146261394327,
364+ "n_pasts": 224,
365+ "n_runs": 28,
366366 "params": {
367367 "filter": "none",
368368 "sigma": 1.0
369369 },
370370 "predicted": 2.1048326603976193,
371- "sd": 0.05082386882922236,
372- "se": 0.0034581262607149403
371+ "sd": 0.05140596024936386,
372+ "se": 0.0034347051944864267
373373 },
374374 {
375375 "L": 1,
376376 "M": 512,
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442442 {
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450- "n_runs": 27,
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451451 "params": {
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455455 "predicted": 5.048034228800837,
456- "sd": 0.2625783980601106,
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458458 }
459459 ],
460460 "estimand": "H(z_{M+1} | z_1..z_M) in bits/sample, for x ~ iid N(0, sigma^2) -> y = h * x -> z = round(y)",
461- "generated": "2026-08-04T15:12:49Z",
461+ "generated": "2026-08-04T18:36:14Z",
462462 "settings": {
463463 "n0": 128,
464464 "pasts_per_run": 8,
@@ -466,5 +466,5 @@
466466 "reps": 8,
467467 "thin": "auto"
468468 },
469- "total_runs": 27
469+ "total_runs": 28
470470 }
runs.jsonlmodified+24−0View file
@@ -646,3 +646,27 @@
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