estimates: run 45 from efed18a
3 changed files+195−171
README.mdmodified+25−25View file
@@ -21,33 +21,33 @@ Fetch it from a browser or a script (raw.githubusercontent.com sends
2121
2222 https://raw.githubusercontent.com/concept-collection/timeseries-entropy/estimates/estimates.json
2323
24-## Current state (37 runs, generated 2026-08-05T20:46:58Z)
24+## Current state (38 runs, generated 2026-08-05T22:07:27Z)
2525
2626 | cell | sigma | M | mean | se | pasts | predicted |
2727 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
28-| bp300-6000_s1 | 1 | 512 | 0.9410 | 0.0065 | 296 | 0.9513 |
29-| bp300-6000_s16 | 16 | 512 | 2.5538 | 0.0141 | 296 | 2.5680 |
30-| bp300-6000_s2 | 2 | 512 | 1.3185 | 0.0070 | 296 | 1.3319 |
31-| bp300-6000_s32 | 32 | 512 | 2.9802 | 0.0290 | 296 | 2.9938 |
32-| bp300-6000_s4 | 4 | 512 | 1.7134 | 0.0079 | 296 | 1.7342 |
33-| bp300-6000_s8 | 8 | 512 | 2.1347 | 0.0147 | 296 | 2.1476 |
34-| lp3000_s1 | 1 | 512 | 0.4847 | 0.0143 | 296 | 0.6166 |
35-| lp3000_s16 | 16 | 512 | 1.4528 | 0.0108 | 296 | 1.4888 |
36-| lp3000_s2 | 2 | 512 | 0.7519 | 0.0164 | 296 | 0.8251 |
37-| lp3000_s32 | 32 | 512 | 1.6510 | 0.0120 | 296 | 1.7179 |
38-| lp3000_s4 | 4 | 512 | 0.9991 | 0.0102 | 296 | 1.0415 |
39-| lp3000_s8 | 8 | 512 | 1.2185 | 0.0111 | 296 | 1.2632 |
40-| ma8_s1 | 1 | 512 | 0.4862 | 0.0124 | 296 | 0.6100 |
41-| ma8_s16 | 16 | 512 | 3.1994 | 0.0183 | 296 | 3.1777 |
42-| ma8_s2 | 2 | 512 | 0.9713 | 0.0066 | 296 | 0.9825 |
43-| ma8_s32 | 32 | 512 | 4.0845 | 0.0148 | 296 | 4.1125 |
44-| ma8_s4 | 4 | 512 | 1.5607 | 0.0067 | 296 | 1.5529 |
45-| ma8_s8 | 8 | 512 | 2.2931 | 0.0083 | 296 | 2.3064 |
46-| none_s1 | 1 | 512 | 2.1042 | 0.0029 | 296 | 2.1048 |
47-| none_s16 | 16 | 512 | 6.0064 | 0.0228 | 296 | 6.0473 |
48-| none_s2 | 2 | 512 | 3.0609 | 0.0048 | 296 | 3.0620 |
49-| none_s32 | 32 | 512 | 7.0261 | 0.0475 | 296 | 7.0472 |
50-| none_s4 | 4 | 512 | 4.0322 | 0.0078 | 296 | 4.0508 |
51-| none_s8 | 8 | 512 | 5.0678 | 0.0180 | 296 | 5.0480 |
28+| bp300-6000_s1 | 1 | 512 | 0.9409 | 0.0064 | 304 | 0.9513 |
29+| bp300-6000_s16 | 16 | 512 | 2.5543 | 0.0138 | 304 | 2.5680 |
30+| bp300-6000_s2 | 2 | 512 | 1.3177 | 0.0068 | 304 | 1.3319 |
31+| bp300-6000_s32 | 32 | 512 | 2.9853 | 0.0294 | 304 | 2.9938 |
32+| bp300-6000_s4 | 4 | 512 | 1.7144 | 0.0077 | 304 | 1.7342 |
33+| bp300-6000_s8 | 8 | 512 | 2.1316 | 0.0144 | 304 | 2.1476 |
34+| lp3000_s1 | 1 | 512 | 0.4831 | 0.0141 | 304 | 0.6166 |
35+| lp3000_s16 | 16 | 512 | 1.4530 | 0.0106 | 304 | 1.4888 |
36+| lp3000_s2 | 2 | 512 | 0.7539 | 0.0161 | 304 | 0.8251 |
37+| lp3000_s32 | 32 | 512 | 1.6516 | 0.0117 | 304 | 1.7179 |
38+| lp3000_s4 | 4 | 512 | 0.9970 | 0.0103 | 304 | 1.0415 |
39+| lp3000_s8 | 8 | 512 | 1.2190 | 0.0109 | 304 | 1.2632 |
40+| ma8_s1 | 1 | 512 | 0.4885 | 0.0123 | 304 | 0.6100 |
41+| ma8_s16 | 16 | 512 | 3.1981 | 0.0178 | 304 | 3.1777 |
42+| ma8_s2 | 2 | 512 | 0.9724 | 0.0064 | 304 | 0.9825 |
43+| ma8_s32 | 32 | 512 | 4.0838 | 0.0145 | 304 | 4.1125 |
44+| ma8_s4 | 4 | 512 | 1.5597 | 0.0067 | 304 | 1.5529 |
45+| ma8_s8 | 8 | 512 | 2.2940 | 0.0081 | 304 | 2.3064 |
46+| none_s1 | 1 | 512 | 2.1047 | 0.0029 | 304 | 2.1048 |
47+| none_s16 | 16 | 512 | 6.0013 | 0.0224 | 304 | 6.0473 |
48+| none_s2 | 2 | 512 | 3.0627 | 0.0051 | 304 | 3.0620 |
49+| none_s32 | 32 | 512 | 7.0637 | 0.0587 | 304 | 7.0472 |
50+| none_s4 | 4 | 512 | 4.0320 | 0.0076 | 304 | 4.0508 |
51+| none_s8 | 8 | 512 | 5.0671 | 0.0176 | 304 | 5.0480 |
5252
5353 [wf]: https://github.com/concept-collection/timeseries-entropy/blob/main/.github/workflows/estimates.yml
estimates.jsonmodified+146−146View file
@@ -5,10 +5,10 @@
55 "M": 512,
66 "highres_szego": -4.78256796018064,
77 "id": "bp300-6000_s1",
8- "last_utc": "2026-08-05T20:12:18Z",
9- "mean": 0.9410206213690951,
10- "n_pasts": 296,
11- "n_runs": 37,
8+ "last_utc": "2026-08-05T21:49:42Z",
9+ "mean": 0.9408704152796478,
10+ "n_pasts": 304,
11+ "n_runs": 38,
1212 "params": {
1313 "filter": "bandpass",
1414 "high": 6000.0,
@@ -18,18 +18,18 @@
1818 "taps": 101
1919 },
2020 "predicted": 0.9512549259549268,
21- "sd": 0.1121358739428176,
22- "se": 0.006517765282163559
21+ "sd": 0.1117539053337605,
22+ "se": 0.006409526051261489
2323 },
2424 {
2525 "L": 101,
2626 "M": 512,
2727 "highres_szego": -0.7825679601806399,
2828 "id": "bp300-6000_s16",
29- "last_utc": "2026-08-05T20:39:19Z",
30- "mean": 2.553807915800454,
31- "n_pasts": 296,
32- "n_runs": 37,
29+ "last_utc": "2026-08-05T21:59:34Z",
30+ "mean": 2.5542720673965276,
31+ "n_pasts": 304,
32+ "n_runs": 38,
3333 "params": {
3434 "filter": "bandpass",
3535 "high": 6000.0,
@@ -39,18 +39,18 @@
3939 "taps": 101
4040 },
4141 "predicted": 2.56797969986038,
42- "sd": 0.243357082102135,
43- "se": 0.01414484308297948
42+ "sd": 0.2405639283926708,
43+ "se": 0.01379728754374746
4444 },
4545 {
4646 "L": 101,
4747 "M": 512,
4848 "highres_szego": -3.7825679601806397,
4949 "id": "bp300-6000_s2",
50- "last_utc": "2026-08-05T20:13:15Z",
51- "mean": 1.3184952196316286,
52- "n_pasts": 296,
53- "n_runs": 37,
50+ "last_utc": "2026-08-05T21:50:47Z",
51+ "mean": 1.3177482968787295,
52+ "n_pasts": 304,
53+ "n_runs": 38,
5454 "params": {
5555 "filter": "bandpass",
5656 "high": 6000.0,
@@ -60,18 +60,18 @@
6060 "taps": 101
6161 },
6262 "predicted": 1.3318639472861573,
63- "sd": 0.12005786570379379,
64- "se": 0.006978221700344295
63+ "sd": 0.11939574276065158,
64+ "se": 0.006847815486613924
6565 },
6666 {
6767 "L": 101,
6868 "M": 512,
6969 "highres_szego": 0.2174320398193601,
7070 "id": "bp300-6000_s32",
71- "last_utc": "2026-08-05T20:46:57Z",
72- "mean": 2.9801531691379464,
73- "n_pasts": 296,
74- "n_runs": 37,
71+ "last_utc": "2026-08-05T22:07:27Z",
72+ "mean": 2.985285897838343,
73+ "n_pasts": 304,
74+ "n_runs": 38,
7575 "params": {
7676 "filter": "bandpass",
7777 "high": 6000.0,
@@ -81,18 +81,18 @@
8181 "taps": 101
8282 },
8383 "predicted": 2.9937688408517453,
84- "sd": 0.49957407664151504,
85- "se": 0.02903715339359996
84+ "sd": 0.5132782650414411,
85+ "se": 0.02943852746357273
8686 },
8787 {
8888 "L": 101,
8989 "M": 512,
9090 "highres_szego": -2.7825679601806397,
9191 "id": "bp300-6000_s4",
92- "last_utc": "2026-08-05T20:17:27Z",
93- "mean": 1.71343227275806,
94- "n_pasts": 296,
95- "n_runs": 37,
92+ "last_utc": "2026-08-05T21:51:36Z",
93+ "mean": 1.7143983853587141,
94+ "n_pasts": 304,
95+ "n_runs": 38,
9696 "params": {
9797 "filter": "bandpass",
9898 "high": 6000.0,
@@ -102,18 +102,18 @@
102102 "taps": 101
103103 },
104104 "predicted": 1.734166393696377,
105- "sd": 0.13533156997607024,
106- "se": 0.007865987728606057
105+ "sd": 0.1339024790245473,
106+ "se": 0.007679833873126006
107107 },
108108 {
109109 "L": 101,
110110 "M": 512,
111111 "highres_szego": -1.78256796018064,
112112 "id": "bp300-6000_s8",
113- "last_utc": "2026-08-05T20:21:12Z",
114- "mean": 2.134724644302089,
115- "n_pasts": 296,
116- "n_runs": 37,
113+ "last_utc": "2026-08-05T21:53:32Z",
114+ "mean": 2.131615803892199,
115+ "n_pasts": 304,
116+ "n_runs": 38,
117117 "params": {
118118 "filter": "bandpass",
119119 "high": 6000.0,
@@ -123,18 +123,18 @@
123123 "taps": 101
124124 },
125125 "predicted": 2.1476021059762167,
126- "sd": 0.25207795595386606,
127- "se": 0.014651733579502703
126+ "sd": 0.25044164600075053,
127+ "se": 0.014363813502253407
128128 },
129129 {
130130 "L": 101,
131131 "M": 512,
132132 "highres_szego": -7.756237076152647,
133133 "id": "lp3000_s1",
134- "last_utc": "2026-08-05T20:03:14Z",
135- "mean": 0.484719474465412,
136- "n_pasts": 296,
137- "n_runs": 37,
134+ "last_utc": "2026-08-05T21:40:35Z",
135+ "mean": 0.48308681574353374,
136+ "n_pasts": 304,
137+ "n_runs": 38,
138138 "params": {
139139 "filter": "lowpass",
140140 "high": 3000.0,
@@ -143,18 +143,18 @@
143143 "taps": 101
144144 },
145145 "predicted": 0.616561114498688,
146- "sd": 0.24604730344486164,
147- "se": 0.014301209022374578
146+ "sd": 0.24591165245711066,
147+ "se": 0.014104000553942645
148148 },
149149 {
150150 "L": 101,
151151 "M": 512,
152152 "highres_szego": -3.756237076152648,
153153 "id": "lp3000_s16",
154- "last_utc": "2026-08-05T20:08:50Z",
155- "mean": 1.4528384996397086,
156- "n_pasts": 296,
157- "n_runs": 37,
154+ "last_utc": "2026-08-05T21:46:23Z",
155+ "mean": 1.4530435010803582,
156+ "n_pasts": 304,
157+ "n_runs": 38,
158158 "params": {
159159 "filter": "lowpass",
160160 "high": 3000.0,
@@ -163,18 +163,18 @@
163163 "taps": 101
164164 },
165165 "predicted": 1.4888184418209351,
166- "sd": 0.18603209545673577,
167- "se": 0.010812895913705161
166+ "sd": 0.18567236940510096,
167+ "se": 0.010649040721639318
168168 },
169169 {
170170 "L": 101,
171171 "M": 512,
172172 "highres_szego": -6.756237076152647,
173173 "id": "lp3000_s2",
174- "last_utc": "2026-08-05T20:04:51Z",
175- "mean": 0.7519174302061894,
176- "n_pasts": 296,
177- "n_runs": 37,
174+ "last_utc": "2026-08-05T21:41:48Z",
175+ "mean": 0.7539077840086802,
176+ "n_pasts": 304,
177+ "n_runs": 38,
178178 "params": {
179179 "filter": "lowpass",
180180 "high": 3000.0,
@@ -183,18 +183,18 @@
183183 "taps": 101
184184 },
185185 "predicted": 0.8251241884518832,
186- "sd": 0.2818485234717344,
187- "se": 0.016382112668510525
186+ "sd": 0.2803850473480619,
187+ "se": 0.01608118535092196
188188 },
189189 {
190190 "L": 101,
191191 "M": 512,
192192 "highres_szego": -2.756237076152648,
193193 "id": "lp3000_s32",
194- "last_utc": "2026-08-05T20:10:51Z",
195- "mean": 1.6509593092134542,
196- "n_pasts": 296,
197- "n_runs": 37,
194+ "last_utc": "2026-08-05T21:48:24Z",
195+ "mean": 1.651575152847468,
196+ "n_pasts": 304,
197+ "n_runs": 38,
198198 "params": {
199199 "filter": "lowpass",
200200 "high": 3000.0,
@@ -203,18 +203,18 @@
203203 "taps": 101
204204 },
205205 "predicted": 1.71791605587854,
206- "sd": 0.2065416000909195,
207- "se": 0.012004986656469801
206+ "sd": 0.20414959447143655,
207+ "se": 0.011708782258760549
208208 },
209209 {
210210 "L": 101,
211211 "M": 512,
212212 "highres_szego": -5.756237076152647,
213213 "id": "lp3000_s4",
214- "last_utc": "2026-08-05T20:06:11Z",
215- "mean": 0.999124376526937,
216- "n_pasts": 296,
217- "n_runs": 37,
214+ "last_utc": "2026-08-05T21:43:11Z",
215+ "mean": 0.9969727196323424,
216+ "n_pasts": 304,
217+ "n_runs": 38,
218218 "params": {
219219 "filter": "lowpass",
220220 "high": 3000.0,
@@ -223,18 +223,18 @@
223223 "taps": 101
224224 },
225225 "predicted": 1.04149876351225,
226- "sd": 0.17594191601114698,
227- "se": 0.010226416146179603
226+ "sd": 0.17941128875989987,
227+ "se": 0.010289943118878923
228228 },
229229 {
230230 "L": 101,
231231 "M": 512,
232232 "highres_szego": -4.756237076152647,
233233 "id": "lp3000_s8",
234- "last_utc": "2026-08-05T20:07:08Z",
235- "mean": 1.218495558578812,
236- "n_pasts": 296,
237- "n_runs": 37,
234+ "last_utc": "2026-08-05T21:44:35Z",
235+ "mean": 1.2189675131472142,
236+ "n_pasts": 304,
237+ "n_runs": 38,
238238 "params": {
239239 "filter": "lowpass",
240240 "high": 3000.0,
@@ -243,222 +243,222 @@
243243 "taps": 101
244244 },
245245 "predicted": 1.2631675560846525,
246- "sd": 0.19062382947800335,
247- "se": 0.01107978503256117
246+ "sd": 0.18998413784069595,
247+ "se": 0.010896337601622307
248248 },
249249 {
250250 "L": 8,
251251 "M": 512,
252252 "highres_szego": -0.9529044148193548,
253253 "id": "ma8_s1",
254- "last_utc": "2026-08-05T20:01:07Z",
255- "mean": 0.4861975155766805,
256- "n_pasts": 296,
257- "n_runs": 37,
254+ "last_utc": "2026-08-05T21:39:01Z",
255+ "mean": 0.48847766435909823,
256+ "n_pasts": 304,
257+ "n_runs": 38,
258258 "params": {
259259 "filter": "moving-average",
260260 "sigma": 1.0,
261261 "width": 8
262262 },
263263 "predicted": 0.6099987154839898,
264- "sd": 0.21284977022238297,
265- "se": 0.01237164159775826
264+ "sd": 0.21492576726492804,
265+ "se": 0.012326838156194255
266266 },
267267 {
268268 "L": 8,
269269 "M": 512,
270270 "highres_szego": 3.0470955851806454,
271271 "id": "ma8_s16",
272- "last_utc": "2026-08-05T20:01:48Z",
273- "mean": 3.199391679790015,
274- "n_pasts": 296,
275- "n_runs": 37,
272+ "last_utc": "2026-08-05T21:39:27Z",
273+ "mean": 3.1980796398590607,
274+ "n_pasts": 304,
275+ "n_runs": 38,
276276 "params": {
277277 "filter": "moving-average",
278278 "sigma": 16.0,
279279 "width": 8
280280 },
281281 "predicted": 3.1776500292335506,
282- "sd": 0.31421065264262915,
283- "se": 0.01826312321893002
282+ "sd": 0.311011748113494,
283+ "se": 0.017837747108955884
284284 },
285285 {
286286 "L": 8,
287287 "M": 512,
288288 "highres_szego": 0.04709558518064521,
289289 "id": "ma8_s2",
290- "last_utc": "2026-08-05T20:01:14Z",
291- "mean": 0.9713112273530319,
292- "n_pasts": 296,
293- "n_runs": 37,
290+ "last_utc": "2026-08-05T21:39:06Z",
291+ "mean": 0.9723920844229162,
292+ "n_pasts": 304,
293+ "n_runs": 38,
294294 "params": {
295295 "filter": "moving-average",
296296 "sigma": 2.0,
297297 "width": 8
298298 },
299299 "predicted": 0.9825176804091631,
300- "sd": 0.11286185922782188,
301- "se": 0.0065599623197358115
300+ "sd": 0.11223317990342731,
301+ "se": 0.00643701433304289
302302 },
303303 {
304304 "L": 8,
305305 "M": 512,
306306 "highres_szego": 4.047095585180645,
307307 "id": "ma8_s32",
308- "last_utc": "2026-08-05T20:02:00Z",
309- "mean": 4.084512365233384,
310- "n_pasts": 296,
311- "n_runs": 37,
308+ "last_utc": "2026-08-05T21:39:33Z",
309+ "mean": 4.083782111092648,
310+ "n_pasts": 304,
311+ "n_runs": 38,
312312 "params": {
313313 "filter": "moving-average",
314314 "sigma": 32.0,
315315 "width": 8
316316 },
317317 "predicted": 4.112486639362294,
318- "sd": 0.2545894420844803,
319- "se": 0.014797710745713583
318+ "sd": 0.2522129172056423,
319+ "se": 0.014465402873091917
320320 },
321321 {
322322 "L": 8,
323323 "M": 512,
324324 "highres_szego": 1.0470955851806452,
325325 "id": "ma8_s4",
326- "last_utc": "2026-08-05T20:01:30Z",
327- "mean": 1.5606845490500612,
328- "n_pasts": 296,
329- "n_runs": 37,
326+ "last_utc": "2026-08-05T21:39:12Z",
327+ "mean": 1.5596617483368533,
328+ "n_pasts": 304,
329+ "n_runs": 38,
330330 "params": {
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332332 "sigma": 4.0,
333333 "width": 8
334334 },
335335 "predicted": 1.5529090070448803,
336- "sd": 0.1154588446694449,
337- "se": 0.006710909032456187
336+ "sd": 0.1160541255452965,
337+ "se": 0.006656160595170126
338338 },
339339 {
340340 "L": 8,
341341 "M": 512,
342342 "highres_szego": 2.0470955851806454,
343343 "id": "ma8_s8",
344- "last_utc": "2026-08-05T20:01:38Z",
345- "mean": 2.2931240978650034,
346- "n_pasts": 296,
347- "n_runs": 37,
344+ "last_utc": "2026-08-05T21:39:20Z",
345+ "mean": 2.2940286861705146,
346+ "n_pasts": 304,
347+ "n_runs": 38,
348348 "params": {
349349 "filter": "moving-average",
350350 "sigma": 8.0,
351351 "width": 8
352352 },
353353 "predicted": 2.3064317412363535,
354- "sd": 0.14267400859037171,
355- "se": 0.00829275830437305
354+ "sd": 0.14154214165010648,
355+ "se": 0.008117998575067545
356356 },
357357 {
358358 "L": 1,
359359 "M": 512,
360360 "highres_szego": 2.047095585180641,
361361 "id": "none_s1",
362- "last_utc": "2026-08-05T20:00:55Z",
363- "mean": 2.104215215102066,
364- "n_pasts": 296,
365- "n_runs": 37,
362+ "last_utc": "2026-08-05T21:38:43Z",
363+ "mean": 2.104745949890163,
364+ "n_pasts": 304,
365+ "n_runs": 38,
366366 "params": {
367367 "filter": "none",
368368 "sigma": 1.0
369369 },
370370 "predicted": 2.1048326603976193,
371- "sd": 0.05025505370045943,
372- "se": 0.0029210156638111227
371+ "sd": 0.05054870738637032,
372+ "se": 0.0028991672003131084
373373 },
374374 {
375375 "L": 1,
376376 "M": 512,
377377 "highres_szego": 6.047095585180641,
378378 "id": "none_s16",
379- "last_utc": "2026-08-05T20:00:59Z",
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458458 }
459459 ],
460460 "estimand": "H(z_{M+1} | z_1..z_M) in bits/sample, for x ~ iid N(0, sigma^2) -> y = h * x -> z = round(y)",
461- "generated": "2026-08-05T20:46:58Z",
461+ "generated": "2026-08-05T22:07:27Z",
462462 "settings": {
463463 "n0": 128,
464464 "pasts_per_run": 8,
@@ -466,5 +466,5 @@
466466 "reps": 8,
467467 "thin": "auto"
468468 },
469- "total_runs": 37
469+ "total_runs": 38
470470 }
runs.jsonlmodified+24−0View file
@@ -886,3 +886,27 @@
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