estimates: run 18 from efed18a
3 changed files+195−171
README.mdmodified+25−25View file
@@ -21,33 +21,33 @@ Fetch it from a browser or a script (raw.githubusercontent.com sends
2121
2222 https://raw.githubusercontent.com/concept-collection/timeseries-entropy/estimates/estimates.json
2323
24-## Current state (10 runs, generated 2026-08-02T14:34:17Z)
24+## Current state (11 runs, generated 2026-08-02T15:53:59Z)
2525
2626 | cell | sigma | M | mean | se | pasts | predicted |
2727 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
28-| bp300-6000_s1 | 1 | 512 | 0.9405 | 0.0147 | 80 | 0.9513 |
29-| bp300-6000_s16 | 16 | 512 | 2.5421 | 0.0269 | 80 | 2.5680 |
30-| bp300-6000_s2 | 2 | 512 | 1.3372 | 0.0150 | 80 | 1.3319 |
31-| bp300-6000_s32 | 32 | 512 | 2.9281 | 0.0449 | 80 | 2.9938 |
32-| bp300-6000_s4 | 4 | 512 | 1.7071 | 0.0160 | 80 | 1.7342 |
33-| bp300-6000_s8 | 8 | 512 | 2.1471 | 0.0276 | 80 | 2.1476 |
34-| lp3000_s1 | 1 | 512 | 0.4688 | 0.0258 | 80 | 0.6166 |
35-| lp3000_s16 | 16 | 512 | 1.4637 | 0.0202 | 80 | 1.4888 |
36-| lp3000_s2 | 2 | 512 | 0.7469 | 0.0316 | 80 | 0.8251 |
37-| lp3000_s32 | 32 | 512 | 1.6358 | 0.0278 | 80 | 1.7179 |
38-| lp3000_s4 | 4 | 512 | 1.0216 | 0.0184 | 80 | 1.0415 |
39-| lp3000_s8 | 8 | 512 | 1.2288 | 0.0197 | 80 | 1.2632 |
40-| ma8_s1 | 1 | 512 | 0.4786 | 0.0216 | 80 | 0.6100 |
41-| ma8_s16 | 16 | 512 | 3.1847 | 0.0396 | 80 | 3.1777 |
42-| ma8_s2 | 2 | 512 | 0.9738 | 0.0100 | 80 | 0.9825 |
43-| ma8_s32 | 32 | 512 | 4.0471 | 0.0178 | 80 | 4.1125 |
44-| ma8_s4 | 4 | 512 | 1.5605 | 0.0134 | 80 | 1.5529 |
45-| ma8_s8 | 8 | 512 | 2.2991 | 0.0163 | 80 | 2.3064 |
46-| none_s1 | 1 | 512 | 2.0979 | 0.0050 | 80 | 2.1048 |
47-| none_s16 | 16 | 512 | 6.0041 | 0.0377 | 80 | 6.0473 |
48-| none_s2 | 2 | 512 | 3.0598 | 0.0073 | 80 | 3.0620 |
49-| none_s32 | 32 | 512 | 7.0043 | 0.0876 | 80 | 7.0472 |
50-| none_s4 | 4 | 512 | 4.0364 | 0.0152 | 80 | 4.0508 |
51-| none_s8 | 8 | 512 | 5.0760 | 0.0327 | 80 | 5.0480 |
28+| bp300-6000_s1 | 1 | 512 | 0.9454 | 0.0136 | 88 | 0.9513 |
29+| bp300-6000_s16 | 16 | 512 | 2.5361 | 0.0250 | 88 | 2.5680 |
30+| bp300-6000_s2 | 2 | 512 | 1.3366 | 0.0140 | 88 | 1.3319 |
31+| bp300-6000_s32 | 32 | 512 | 2.9402 | 0.0423 | 88 | 2.9938 |
32+| bp300-6000_s4 | 4 | 512 | 1.7086 | 0.0149 | 88 | 1.7342 |
33+| bp300-6000_s8 | 8 | 512 | 2.1477 | 0.0252 | 88 | 2.1476 |
34+| lp3000_s1 | 1 | 512 | 0.4648 | 0.0240 | 88 | 0.6166 |
35+| lp3000_s16 | 16 | 512 | 1.4675 | 0.0189 | 88 | 1.4888 |
36+| lp3000_s2 | 2 | 512 | 0.7513 | 0.0295 | 88 | 0.8251 |
37+| lp3000_s32 | 32 | 512 | 1.6352 | 0.0257 | 88 | 1.7179 |
38+| lp3000_s4 | 4 | 512 | 1.0189 | 0.0171 | 88 | 1.0415 |
39+| lp3000_s8 | 8 | 512 | 1.2293 | 0.0186 | 88 | 1.2632 |
40+| ma8_s1 | 1 | 512 | 0.4832 | 0.0214 | 88 | 0.6100 |
41+| ma8_s16 | 16 | 512 | 3.1783 | 0.0362 | 88 | 3.1777 |
42+| ma8_s2 | 2 | 512 | 0.9723 | 0.0093 | 88 | 0.9825 |
43+| ma8_s32 | 32 | 512 | 4.0514 | 0.0174 | 88 | 4.1125 |
44+| ma8_s4 | 4 | 512 | 1.5612 | 0.0133 | 88 | 1.5529 |
45+| ma8_s8 | 8 | 512 | 2.2962 | 0.0151 | 88 | 2.3064 |
46+| none_s1 | 1 | 512 | 2.0976 | 0.0047 | 88 | 2.1048 |
47+| none_s16 | 16 | 512 | 6.0135 | 0.0381 | 88 | 6.0473 |
48+| none_s2 | 2 | 512 | 3.0575 | 0.0069 | 88 | 3.0620 |
49+| none_s32 | 32 | 512 | 6.9959 | 0.0804 | 88 | 7.0472 |
50+| none_s4 | 4 | 512 | 4.0343 | 0.0140 | 88 | 4.0508 |
51+| none_s8 | 8 | 512 | 5.0705 | 0.0309 | 88 | 5.0480 |
5252
5353 [wf]: https://github.com/concept-collection/timeseries-entropy/blob/main/.github/workflows/estimates.yml
estimates.jsonmodified+146−146View file
@@ -5,10 +5,10 @@
55 "M": 512,
66 "highres_szego": -4.78256796018064,
77 "id": "bp300-6000_s1",
8- "last_utc": "2026-08-02T14:18:03Z",
9- "mean": 0.9404634488505828,
10- "n_pasts": 80,
11- "n_runs": 10,
8+ "last_utc": "2026-08-02T15:44:08Z",
9+ "mean": 0.945380778419472,
10+ "n_pasts": 88,
11+ "n_runs": 11,
1212 "params": {
1313 "filter": "bandpass",
1414 "high": 6000.0,
@@ -18,18 +18,18 @@
1818 "taps": 101
1919 },
2020 "predicted": 0.9512549259549268,
21- "sd": 0.131282176027226,
22- "se": 0.01467779349154853
21+ "sd": 0.12729736846243966,
22+ "se": 0.013569945073188115
2323 },
2424 {
2525 "L": 101,
2626 "M": 512,
2727 "highres_szego": -0.7825679601806399,
2828 "id": "bp300-6000_s16",
29- "last_utc": "2026-08-02T14:28:38Z",
30- "mean": 2.54210347009768,
31- "n_pasts": 80,
32- "n_runs": 10,
29+ "last_utc": "2026-08-02T15:50:12Z",
30+ "mean": 2.536078970886715,
31+ "n_pasts": 88,
32+ "n_runs": 11,
3333 "params": {
3434 "filter": "bandpass",
3535 "high": 6000.0,
@@ -39,18 +39,18 @@
3939 "taps": 101
4040 },
4141 "predicted": 2.56797969986038,
42- "sd": 0.2406560425995712,
43- "se": 0.026906163522436324
42+ "sd": 0.23458079033717985,
43+ "se": 0.025006396271575998
4444 },
4545 {
4646 "L": 101,
4747 "M": 512,
4848 "highres_szego": -3.7825679601806397,
4949 "id": "bp300-6000_s2",
50- "last_utc": "2026-08-02T14:19:01Z",
51- "mean": 1.3372499869249328,
52- "n_pasts": 80,
53- "n_runs": 10,
50+ "last_utc": "2026-08-02T15:44:58Z",
51+ "mean": 1.3366055226865405,
52+ "n_pasts": 88,
53+ "n_runs": 11,
5454 "params": {
5555 "filter": "bandpass",
5656 "high": 6000.0,
@@ -60,18 +60,18 @@
6060 "taps": 101
6161 },
6262 "predicted": 1.3318639472861573,
63- "sd": 0.1341361863858861,
64- "se": 0.014996881550071157
63+ "sd": 0.13136629760078886,
64+ "se": 0.014003694376736247
6565 },
6666 {
6767 "L": 101,
6868 "M": 512,
6969 "highres_szego": 0.2174320398193601,
7070 "id": "bp300-6000_s32",
71- "last_utc": "2026-08-02T14:34:17Z",
72- "mean": 2.9281388822051158,
73- "n_pasts": 80,
74- "n_runs": 10,
71+ "last_utc": "2026-08-02T15:53:59Z",
72+ "mean": 2.940219115607441,
73+ "n_pasts": 88,
74+ "n_runs": 11,
7575 "params": {
7676 "filter": "bandpass",
7777 "high": 6000.0,
@@ -81,18 +81,18 @@
8181 "taps": 101
8282 },
8383 "predicted": 2.9937688408517453,
84- "sd": 0.4014309006731319,
85- "se": 0.04488133910870445
84+ "sd": 0.3971887647102955,
85+ "se": 0.04234046458231751
8686 },
8787 {
8888 "L": 101,
8989 "M": 512,
9090 "highres_szego": -2.7825679601806397,
9191 "id": "bp300-6000_s4",
92- "last_utc": "2026-08-02T14:20:25Z",
93- "mean": 1.707084198989579,
94- "n_pasts": 80,
95- "n_runs": 10,
92+ "last_utc": "2026-08-02T15:46:18Z",
93+ "mean": 1.70861044192507,
94+ "n_pasts": 88,
95+ "n_runs": 11,
9696 "params": {
9797 "filter": "bandpass",
9898 "high": 6000.0,
@@ -102,18 +102,18 @@
102102 "taps": 101
103103 },
104104 "predicted": 1.734166393696377,
105- "sd": 0.14323537580531878,
106- "se": 0.016014201854171073
105+ "sd": 0.13934205326080026,
106+ "se": 0.014853912786832119
107107 },
108108 {
109109 "L": 101,
110110 "M": 512,
111111 "highres_szego": -1.78256796018064,
112112 "id": "bp300-6000_s8",
113- "last_utc": "2026-08-02T14:22:22Z",
114- "mean": 2.1471450815361672,
115- "n_pasts": 80,
116- "n_runs": 10,
113+ "last_utc": "2026-08-02T15:48:11Z",
114+ "mean": 2.147738489564205,
115+ "n_pasts": 88,
116+ "n_runs": 11,
117117 "params": {
118118 "filter": "bandpass",
119119 "high": 6000.0,
@@ -123,18 +123,18 @@
123123 "taps": 101
124124 },
125125 "predicted": 2.1476021059762167,
126- "sd": 0.24653094018763402,
127- "se": 0.02756299704082422
126+ "sd": 0.23613754127747638,
127+ "se": 0.025172346479405246
128128 },
129129 {
130130 "L": 101,
131131 "M": 512,
132132 "highres_szego": -7.756237076152647,
133133 "id": "lp3000_s1",
134- "last_utc": "2026-08-02T14:06:29Z",
135- "mean": 0.46880928011722167,
136- "n_pasts": 80,
137- "n_runs": 10,
134+ "last_utc": "2026-08-02T15:34:49Z",
135+ "mean": 0.46479067968235005,
136+ "n_pasts": 88,
137+ "n_runs": 11,
138138 "params": {
139139 "filter": "lowpass",
140140 "high": 3000.0,
@@ -143,18 +143,18 @@
143143 "taps": 101
144144 },
145145 "predicted": 0.616561114498688,
146- "sd": 0.2307961758908958,
147- "se": 0.025803796911952052
146+ "sd": 0.22503870269884116,
147+ "se": 0.023989206311565092
148148 },
149149 {
150150 "L": 101,
151151 "M": 512,
152152 "highres_szego": -3.756237076152648,
153153 "id": "lp3000_s16",
154- "last_utc": "2026-08-02T14:13:08Z",
155- "mean": 1.463689331716391,
156- "n_pasts": 80,
157- "n_runs": 10,
154+ "last_utc": "2026-08-02T15:39:02Z",
155+ "mean": 1.4674871933985332,
156+ "n_pasts": 88,
157+ "n_runs": 11,
158158 "params": {
159159 "filter": "lowpass",
160160 "high": 3000.0,
@@ -163,18 +163,18 @@
163163 "taps": 101
164164 },
165165 "predicted": 1.4888184418209351,
166- "sd": 0.18074391914167165,
167- "se": 0.02020778448602516
166+ "sd": 0.1774489614487671,
167+ "se": 0.01891612284871812
168168 },
169169 {
170170 "L": 101,
171171 "M": 512,
172172 "highres_szego": -6.756237076152647,
173173 "id": "lp3000_s2",
174- "last_utc": "2026-08-02T14:08:07Z",
175- "mean": 0.7469056091637853,
176- "n_pasts": 80,
177- "n_runs": 10,
174+ "last_utc": "2026-08-02T15:35:49Z",
175+ "mean": 0.7512688839334896,
176+ "n_pasts": 88,
177+ "n_runs": 11,
178178 "params": {
179179 "filter": "lowpass",
180180 "high": 3000.0,
@@ -183,18 +183,18 @@
183183 "taps": 101
184184 },
185185 "predicted": 0.8251241884518832,
186- "sd": 0.2830653872904192,
187- "se": 0.03164767240293412
186+ "sd": 0.27629477863702806,
187+ "se": 0.029453122365364594
188188 },
189189 {
190190 "L": 101,
191191 "M": 512,
192192 "highres_szego": -2.756237076152648,
193193 "id": "lp3000_s32",
194- "last_utc": "2026-08-02T14:16:40Z",
195- "mean": 1.6357549238498759,
196- "n_pasts": 80,
197- "n_runs": 10,
194+ "last_utc": "2026-08-02T15:42:57Z",
195+ "mean": 1.6352033092852203,
196+ "n_pasts": 88,
197+ "n_runs": 11,
198198 "params": {
199199 "filter": "lowpass",
200200 "high": 3000.0,
@@ -203,18 +203,18 @@
203203 "taps": 101
204204 },
205205 "predicted": 1.71791605587854,
206- "sd": 0.24863626369308006,
207- "se": 0.0277983793644645
206+ "sd": 0.24118590991822478,
207+ "se": 0.025710504384722624
208208 },
209209 {
210210 "L": 101,
211211 "M": 512,
212212 "highres_szego": -5.756237076152647,
213213 "id": "lp3000_s4",
214- "last_utc": "2026-08-02T14:08:56Z",
215- "mean": 1.0215714256301218,
216- "n_pasts": 80,
217- "n_runs": 10,
214+ "last_utc": "2026-08-02T15:36:46Z",
215+ "mean": 1.018886129263816,
216+ "n_pasts": 88,
217+ "n_runs": 11,
218218 "params": {
219219 "filter": "lowpass",
220220 "high": 3000.0,
@@ -223,18 +223,18 @@
223223 "taps": 101
224224 },
225225 "predicted": 1.04149876351225,
226- "sd": 0.16423011997739556,
227- "se": 0.018361485611120134
226+ "sd": 0.16032040226922645,
227+ "se": 0.017090212305109355
228228 },
229229 {
230230 "L": 101,
231231 "M": 512,
232232 "highres_szego": -4.756237076152647,
233233 "id": "lp3000_s8",
234- "last_utc": "2026-08-02T14:10:02Z",
235- "mean": 1.2287761941912354,
236- "n_pasts": 80,
237- "n_runs": 10,
234+ "last_utc": "2026-08-02T15:37:28Z",
235+ "mean": 1.2292979860091473,
236+ "n_pasts": 88,
237+ "n_runs": 11,
238238 "params": {
239239 "filter": "lowpass",
240240 "high": 3000.0,
@@ -243,222 +243,222 @@
243243 "taps": 101
244244 },
245245 "predicted": 1.2631675560846525,
246- "sd": 0.17575519750812255,
247- "se": 0.019650028451353184
246+ "sd": 0.17474915363024296,
247+ "se": 0.01862832236825221
248248 },
249249 {
250250 "L": 8,
251251 "M": 512,
252252 "highres_szego": -0.9529044148193548,
253253 "id": "ma8_s1",
254- "last_utc": "2026-08-02T14:04:43Z",
255- "mean": 0.47857993229995904,
256- "n_pasts": 80,
257- "n_runs": 10,
254+ "last_utc": "2026-08-02T15:33:11Z",
255+ "mean": 0.48322355310933235,
256+ "n_pasts": 88,
257+ "n_runs": 11,
258258 "params": {
259259 "filter": "moving-average",
260260 "sigma": 1.0,
261261 "width": 8
262262 },
263263 "predicted": 0.6099987154839898,
264- "sd": 0.19343077426175068,
265- "se": 0.02162621800948456
264+ "sd": 0.2003933644657745,
265+ "se": 0.021362004428507025
266266 },
267267 {
268268 "L": 8,
269269 "M": 512,
270270 "highres_szego": 3.0470955851806454,
271271 "id": "ma8_s16",
272- "last_utc": "2026-08-02T14:05:11Z",
273- "mean": 3.1847153380454243,
274- "n_pasts": 80,
275- "n_runs": 10,
272+ "last_utc": "2026-08-02T15:33:44Z",
273+ "mean": 3.1783299077899625,
274+ "n_pasts": 88,
275+ "n_runs": 11,
276276 "params": {
277277 "filter": "moving-average",
278278 "sigma": 16.0,
279279 "width": 8
280280 },
281281 "predicted": 3.1776500292335506,
282- "sd": 0.3542739923377382,
283- "se": 0.039609036476371116
282+ "sd": 0.33976521764155365,
283+ "se": 0.036219093896949564
284284 },
285285 {
286286 "L": 8,
287287 "M": 512,
288288 "highres_szego": 0.04709558518064521,
289289 "id": "ma8_s2",
290- "last_utc": "2026-08-02T14:04:49Z",
291- "mean": 0.9738076716711952,
292- "n_pasts": 80,
293- "n_runs": 10,
290+ "last_utc": "2026-08-02T15:33:15Z",
291+ "mean": 0.9722645229718888,
292+ "n_pasts": 88,
293+ "n_runs": 11,
294294 "params": {
295295 "filter": "moving-average",
296296 "sigma": 2.0,
297297 "width": 8
298298 },
299299 "predicted": 0.9825176804091631,
300- "sd": 0.08986208893509896,
301- "se": 0.010046886972950649
300+ "sd": 0.08755070608774171,
301+ "se": 0.009332936627673018
302302 },
303303 {
304304 "L": 8,
305305 "M": 512,
306306 "highres_szego": 4.047095585180645,
307307 "id": "ma8_s32",
308- "last_utc": "2026-08-02T14:05:16Z",
309- "mean": 4.047058523690286,
310- "n_pasts": 80,
311- "n_runs": 10,
308+ "last_utc": "2026-08-02T15:33:49Z",
309+ "mean": 4.051415214836022,
310+ "n_pasts": 88,
311+ "n_runs": 11,
312312 "params": {
313313 "filter": "moving-average",
314314 "sigma": 32.0,
315315 "width": 8
316316 },
317317 "predicted": 4.112486639362294,
318- "sd": 0.15948720053513615,
319- "se": 0.017831211096885263
318+ "sd": 0.163466561456977,
319+ "se": 0.017425594001407956
320320 },
321321 {
322322 "L": 8,
323323 "M": 512,
324324 "highres_szego": 1.0470955851806452,
325325 "id": "ma8_s4",
326- "last_utc": "2026-08-02T14:04:56Z",
327- "mean": 1.5604603848122518,
328- "n_pasts": 80,
329- "n_runs": 10,
326+ "last_utc": "2026-08-02T15:33:23Z",
327+ "mean": 1.561229838104808,
328+ "n_pasts": 88,
329+ "n_runs": 11,
330330 "params": {
331331 "filter": "moving-average",
332332 "sigma": 4.0,
333333 "width": 8
334334 },
335335 "predicted": 1.5529090070448803,
336- "sd": 0.12001600496317637,
337- "se": 0.013418197274280725
336+ "sd": 0.12492051831646458,
337+ "se": 0.0133165719962922
338338 },
339339 {
340340 "L": 8,
341341 "M": 512,
342342 "highres_szego": 2.0470955851806454,
343343 "id": "ma8_s8",
344- "last_utc": "2026-08-02T14:05:05Z",
345- "mean": 2.299133673211763,
346- "n_pasts": 80,
347- "n_runs": 10,
344+ "last_utc": "2026-08-02T15:33:39Z",
345+ "mean": 2.2962498424169087,
346+ "n_pasts": 88,
347+ "n_runs": 11,
348348 "params": {
349349 "filter": "moving-average",
350350 "sigma": 8.0,
351351 "width": 8
352352 },
353353 "predicted": 2.3064317412363535,
354- "sd": 0.14536023701215783,
355- "se": 0.01625176855923329
354+ "sd": 0.14162042144672185,
355+ "se": 0.015096787651512277
356356 },
357357 {
358358 "L": 1,
359359 "M": 512,
360360 "highres_szego": 2.047095585180641,
361361 "id": "none_s1",
362- "last_utc": "2026-08-02T14:04:33Z",
363- "mean": 2.0979076984691334,
364- "n_pasts": 80,
365- "n_runs": 10,
362+ "last_utc": "2026-08-02T15:33:02Z",
363+ "mean": 2.097625920670981,
364+ "n_pasts": 88,
365+ "n_runs": 11,
366366 "params": {
367367 "filter": "none",
368368 "sigma": 1.0
369369 },
370370 "predicted": 2.1048326603976193,
371- "sd": 0.04508556969562107,
372- "se": 0.00504071993218566
371+ "sd": 0.04451528946860906,
372+ "se": 0.004745345801742407
373373 },
374374 {
375375 "L": 1,
376376 "M": 512,
377377 "highres_szego": 6.047095585180641,
378378 "id": "none_s16",
379- "last_utc": "2026-08-02T14:04:37Z",
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440+ "se": 0.013950265672767864
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442442 {
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445445 "highres_szego": 5.047095585180641,
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448- "mean": 5.076038135897392,
449- "n_pasts": 80,
450- "n_runs": 10,
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448+ "mean": 5.07045000170719,
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450+ "n_runs": 11,
451451 "params": {
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453453 "sigma": 8.0
454454 },
455455 "predicted": 5.048034228800837,
456- "sd": 0.2922365742016273,
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456+ "sd": 0.2894577316818109,
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458458 }
459459 ],
460460 "estimand": "H(z_{M+1} | z_1..z_M) in bits/sample, for x ~ iid N(0, sigma^2) -> y = h * x -> z = round(y)",
461- "generated": "2026-08-02T14:34:17Z",
461+ "generated": "2026-08-02T15:53:59Z",
462462 "settings": {
463463 "n0": 128,
464464 "pasts_per_run": 8,
@@ -466,5 +466,5 @@
466466 "reps": 8,
467467 "thin": "auto"
468468 },
469- "total_runs": 10
469+ "total_runs": 11
470470 }
runs.jsonlmodified+24−0View file
@@ -238,3 +238,27 @@
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