estimates: run 101 from efed18a
3 changed files+207−183
README.mdmodified+25−25View file
@@ -21,33 +21,33 @@ Fetch it from a browser or a script (raw.githubusercontent.com sends
2121
2222 https://raw.githubusercontent.com/concept-collection/timeseries-entropy/estimates/estimates.json
2323
24-## Current state (87 runs, generated 2026-08-11T09:53:00Z)
24+## Current state (88 runs, generated 2026-08-11T11:39:57Z)
2525
2626 | cell | sigma | M | mean | se | pasts | predicted |
2727 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
28-| bp300-6000_s1 | 1 | 512 | 0.9321 | 0.0048 | 696 | 0.9513 |
29-| bp300-6000_s16 | 16 | 512 | 2.5421 | 0.0084 | 696 | 2.5680 |
30-| bp300-6000_s2 | 2 | 512 | 1.3110 | 0.0044 | 696 | 1.3319 |
31-| bp300-6000_s32 | 32 | 512 | 2.9803 | 0.0205 | 696 | 2.9938 |
32-| bp300-6000_s4 | 4 | 512 | 1.7205 | 0.0049 | 696 | 1.7342 |
33-| bp300-6000_s8 | 8 | 512 | 2.1337 | 0.0080 | 696 | 2.1476 |
34-| lp3000_s1 | 1 | 512 | 0.4751 | 0.0089 | 696 | 0.6166 |
35-| lp3000_s16 | 16 | 512 | 1.4454 | 0.0070 | 696 | 1.4888 |
36-| lp3000_s2 | 2 | 512 | 0.7600 | 0.0103 | 696 | 0.8251 |
37-| lp3000_s32 | 32 | 512 | 1.6614 | 0.0078 | 696 | 1.7179 |
38-| lp3000_s4 | 4 | 512 | 0.9891 | 0.0073 | 696 | 1.0415 |
39-| lp3000_s8 | 8 | 512 | 1.2175 | 0.0082 | 696 | 1.2632 |
40-| ma8_s1 | 1 | 512 | 0.4767 | 0.0078 | 696 | 0.6100 |
41-| ma8_s16 | 16 | 512 | 3.1864 | 0.0103 | 696 | 3.1777 |
42-| ma8_s2 | 2 | 512 | 0.9743 | 0.0038 | 696 | 0.9825 |
43-| ma8_s32 | 32 | 512 | 4.0878 | 0.0092 | 696 | 4.1125 |
44-| ma8_s4 | 4 | 512 | 1.5556 | 0.0039 | 696 | 1.5529 |
45-| ma8_s8 | 8 | 512 | 2.3015 | 0.0056 | 696 | 2.3064 |
46-| none_s1 | 1 | 512 | 2.1057 | 0.0027 | 696 | 2.1048 |
47-| none_s16 | 16 | 512 | 6.0195 | 0.0180 | 696 | 6.0473 |
48-| none_s2 | 2 | 512 | 3.0648 | 0.0035 | 696 | 3.0620 |
49-| none_s32 | 32 | 512 | 7.0781 | 0.0391 | 696 | 7.0472 |
50-| none_s4 | 4 | 512 | 4.0391 | 0.0052 | 696 | 4.0508 |
51-| none_s8 | 8 | 512 | 5.0658 | 0.0116 | 696 | 5.0480 |
28+| bp300-6000_s1 | 1 | 512 | 0.9324 | 0.0047 | 704 | 0.9513 |
29+| bp300-6000_s16 | 16 | 512 | 2.5424 | 0.0083 | 704 | 2.5680 |
30+| bp300-6000_s2 | 2 | 512 | 1.3099 | 0.0044 | 704 | 1.3319 |
31+| bp300-6000_s32 | 32 | 512 | 2.9790 | 0.0203 | 704 | 2.9938 |
32+| bp300-6000_s4 | 4 | 512 | 1.7210 | 0.0049 | 704 | 1.7342 |
33+| bp300-6000_s8 | 8 | 512 | 2.1346 | 0.0079 | 704 | 2.1476 |
34+| lp3000_s1 | 1 | 512 | 0.4750 | 0.0088 | 704 | 0.6166 |
35+| lp3000_s16 | 16 | 512 | 1.4468 | 0.0070 | 704 | 1.4888 |
36+| lp3000_s2 | 2 | 512 | 0.7611 | 0.0102 | 704 | 0.8251 |
37+| lp3000_s32 | 32 | 512 | 1.6624 | 0.0077 | 704 | 1.7179 |
38+| lp3000_s4 | 4 | 512 | 0.9886 | 0.0073 | 704 | 1.0415 |
39+| lp3000_s8 | 8 | 512 | 1.2179 | 0.0081 | 704 | 1.2632 |
40+| ma8_s1 | 1 | 512 | 0.4757 | 0.0078 | 704 | 0.6100 |
41+| ma8_s16 | 16 | 512 | 3.1855 | 0.0102 | 704 | 3.1777 |
42+| ma8_s2 | 2 | 512 | 0.9745 | 0.0037 | 704 | 0.9825 |
43+| ma8_s32 | 32 | 512 | 4.0881 | 0.0092 | 704 | 4.1125 |
44+| ma8_s4 | 4 | 512 | 1.5557 | 0.0039 | 704 | 1.5529 |
45+| ma8_s8 | 8 | 512 | 2.3022 | 0.0056 | 704 | 2.3064 |
46+| none_s1 | 1 | 512 | 2.1061 | 0.0027 | 704 | 2.1048 |
47+| none_s16 | 16 | 512 | 6.0205 | 0.0180 | 704 | 6.0473 |
48+| none_s2 | 2 | 512 | 3.0649 | 0.0034 | 704 | 3.0620 |
49+| none_s32 | 32 | 512 | 7.0764 | 0.0387 | 704 | 7.0472 |
50+| none_s4 | 4 | 512 | 4.0388 | 0.0052 | 704 | 4.0508 |
51+| none_s8 | 8 | 512 | 5.0643 | 0.0115 | 704 | 5.0480 |
5252
5353 [wf]: https://github.com/concept-collection/timeseries-entropy/blob/main/.github/workflows/estimates.yml
estimates.jsonmodified+158−158View file
@@ -3,12 +3,12 @@
33 {
44 "L": 101,
55 "M": 512,
6- "highres_szego": -4.782567960178533,
6+ "highres_szego": -4.78256796018064,
77 "id": "bp300-6000_s1",
8- "last_utc": "2026-08-11T09:37:35Z",
9- "mean": 0.9320540331062207,
10- "n_pasts": 696,
11- "n_runs": 87,
8+ "last_utc": "2026-08-11T11:24:09Z",
9+ "mean": 0.9323700252548601,
10+ "n_pasts": 704,
11+ "n_runs": 88,
1212 "params": {
1313 "filter": "bandpass",
1414 "high": 6000.0,
@@ -18,18 +18,18 @@
1818 "taps": 101
1919 },
2020 "predicted": 0.9512549259549268,
21- "sd": 0.12534204293766849,
22- "se": 0.00475107787646147
21+ "sd": 0.12478544832098738,
22+ "se": 0.004703028538374993
2323 },
2424 {
2525 "L": 101,
2626 "M": 512,
27- "highres_szego": -0.7825679601785338,
27+ "highres_szego": -0.7825679601806399,
2828 "id": "bp300-6000_s16",
29- "last_utc": "2026-08-11T09:42:25Z",
30- "mean": 2.542083424902935,
31- "n_pasts": 696,
32- "n_runs": 87,
29+ "last_utc": "2026-08-11T11:36:01Z",
30+ "mean": 2.542389075864383,
31+ "n_pasts": 704,
32+ "n_runs": 88,
3333 "params": {
3434 "filter": "bandpass",
3535 "high": 6000.0,
@@ -39,18 +39,18 @@
3939 "taps": 101
4040 },
4141 "predicted": 2.56797969986038,
42- "sd": 0.22094707465180086,
43- "se": 0.008374977251400607
42+ "sd": 0.22006526415765737,
43+ "se": 0.0082940217113795
4444 },
4545 {
4646 "L": 101,
4747 "M": 512,
48- "highres_szego": -3.782567960178534,
48+ "highres_szego": -3.7825679601806397,
4949 "id": "bp300-6000_s2",
50- "last_utc": "2026-08-11T09:38:30Z",
51- "mean": 1.3109941493433535,
52- "n_pasts": 696,
53- "n_runs": 87,
50+ "last_utc": "2026-08-11T11:25:35Z",
51+ "mean": 1.3098914557863726,
52+ "n_pasts": 704,
53+ "n_runs": 88,
5454 "params": {
5555 "filter": "bandpass",
5656 "high": 6000.0,
@@ -60,18 +60,18 @@
6060 "taps": 101
6161 },
6262 "predicted": 1.3318639472861573,
63- "sd": 0.1167579123972523,
64- "se": 0.004425697248035698
63+ "sd": 0.11784794347603716,
64+ "se": 0.004441561486648032
6565 },
6666 {
6767 "L": 101,
6868 "M": 512,
69- "highres_szego": 0.21743203982146625,
69+ "highres_szego": 0.2174320398193601,
7070 "id": "bp300-6000_s32",
71- "last_utc": "2026-08-11T09:53:00Z",
72- "mean": 2.9802621170783823,
73- "n_pasts": 696,
74- "n_runs": 87,
71+ "last_utc": "2026-08-11T11:39:57Z",
72+ "mean": 2.978960038917697,
73+ "n_pasts": 704,
74+ "n_runs": 88,
7575 "params": {
7676 "filter": "bandpass",
7777 "high": 6000.0,
@@ -81,18 +81,18 @@
8181 "taps": 101
8282 },
8383 "predicted": 2.9937688408517453,
84- "sd": 0.5405009440659048,
85- "se": 0.020487635412445634
84+ "sd": 0.5395114199823362,
85+ "se": 0.02033360170674159
8686 },
8787 {
8888 "L": 101,
8989 "M": 512,
90- "highres_szego": -2.782567960178534,
90+ "highres_szego": -2.7825679601806397,
9191 "id": "bp300-6000_s4",
92- "last_utc": "2026-08-11T09:39:22Z",
93- "mean": 1.7205320860342226,
94- "n_pasts": 696,
95- "n_runs": 87,
92+ "last_utc": "2026-08-11T11:26:51Z",
93+ "mean": 1.7209552038811466,
94+ "n_pasts": 704,
95+ "n_runs": 88,
9696 "params": {
9797 "filter": "bandpass",
9898 "high": 6000.0,
@@ -102,18 +102,18 @@
102102 "taps": 101
103103 },
104104 "predicted": 1.734166393696377,
105- "sd": 0.12911084725411287,
106- "se": 0.00489393403540788
105+ "sd": 0.13022002035304767,
106+ "se": 0.004907851678448894
107107 },
108108 {
109109 "L": 101,
110110 "M": 512,
111- "highres_szego": -1.7825679601785338,
111+ "highres_szego": -1.78256796018064,
112112 "id": "bp300-6000_s8",
113- "last_utc": "2026-08-11T09:40:13Z",
114- "mean": 2.1337256640354636,
115- "n_pasts": 696,
116- "n_runs": 87,
113+ "last_utc": "2026-08-11T11:32:04Z",
114+ "mean": 2.1346467424084277,
115+ "n_pasts": 704,
116+ "n_runs": 88,
117117 "params": {
118118 "filter": "bandpass",
119119 "high": 6000.0,
@@ -123,18 +123,18 @@
123123 "taps": 101
124124 },
125125 "predicted": 2.1476021059762167,
126- "sd": 0.21099659949486624,
127- "se": 0.007997805463942976
126+ "sd": 0.21045171485681988,
127+ "se": 0.007931697439396984
128128 },
129129 {
130130 "L": 101,
131131 "M": 512,
132- "highres_szego": -7.756237076152649,
132+ "highres_szego": -7.756237076152647,
133133 "id": "lp3000_s1",
134- "last_utc": "2026-08-11T09:29:40Z",
135- "mean": 0.47511563995755185,
136- "n_pasts": 696,
137- "n_runs": 87,
134+ "last_utc": "2026-08-11T11:12:18Z",
135+ "mean": 0.47500287559559057,
136+ "n_pasts": 704,
137+ "n_runs": 88,
138138 "params": {
139139 "filter": "lowpass",
140140 "high": 3000.0,
@@ -143,18 +143,18 @@
143143 "taps": 101
144144 },
145145 "predicted": 0.616561114498688,
146- "sd": 0.2342060973273397,
147- "se": 0.008877559208905324
146+ "sd": 0.23443075230381172,
147+ "se": 0.008835441417187366
148148 },
149149 {
150150 "L": 101,
151151 "M": 512,
152- "highres_szego": -3.7562370761526487,
152+ "highres_szego": -3.756237076152648,
153153 "id": "lp3000_s16",
154- "last_utc": "2026-08-11T09:34:05Z",
155- "mean": 1.4453573615787467,
156- "n_pasts": 696,
157- "n_runs": 87,
154+ "last_utc": "2026-08-11T11:18:07Z",
155+ "mean": 1.446766751923035,
156+ "n_pasts": 704,
157+ "n_runs": 88,
158158 "params": {
159159 "filter": "lowpass",
160160 "high": 3000.0,
@@ -163,18 +163,18 @@
163163 "taps": 101
164164 },
165165 "predicted": 1.4888184418209351,
166- "sd": 0.18439494303069348,
167- "se": 0.006989472277870603
166+ "sd": 0.18445934322421578,
167+ "se": 0.006952073074433062
168168 },
169169 {
170170 "L": 101,
171171 "M": 512,
172- "highres_szego": -6.756237076152649,
172+ "highres_szego": -6.756237076152647,
173173 "id": "lp3000_s2",
174- "last_utc": "2026-08-11T09:30:26Z",
175- "mean": 0.7600370437164923,
176- "n_pasts": 696,
177- "n_runs": 87,
174+ "last_utc": "2026-08-11T11:13:14Z",
175+ "mean": 0.7611220205350595,
176+ "n_pasts": 704,
177+ "n_runs": 88,
178178 "params": {
179179 "filter": "lowpass",
180180 "high": 3000.0,
@@ -183,18 +183,18 @@
183183 "taps": 101
184184 },
185185 "predicted": 0.8251241884518832,
186- "sd": 0.27166097379133924,
187- "se": 0.010297282637397702
186+ "sd": 0.27071103504480976,
187+ "se": 0.010202806021049836
188188 },
189189 {
190190 "L": 101,
191191 "M": 512,
192- "highres_szego": -2.7562370761526487,
192+ "highres_szego": -2.756237076152648,
193193 "id": "lp3000_s32",
194- "last_utc": "2026-08-11T09:36:46Z",
195- "mean": 1.6613624206631932,
196- "n_pasts": 696,
197- "n_runs": 87,
194+ "last_utc": "2026-08-11T11:23:21Z",
195+ "mean": 1.6624400945768194,
196+ "n_pasts": 704,
197+ "n_runs": 88,
198198 "params": {
199199 "filter": "lowpass",
200200 "high": 3000.0,
@@ -203,18 +203,18 @@
203203 "taps": 101
204204 },
205205 "predicted": 1.71791605587854,
206- "sd": 0.20591261404901115,
207- "se": 0.007805097492938658
206+ "sd": 0.2055861409556413,
207+ "se": 0.00774831922326113
208208 },
209209 {
210210 "L": 101,
211211 "M": 512,
212- "highres_szego": -5.756237076152649,
212+ "highres_szego": -5.756237076152647,
213213 "id": "lp3000_s4",
214- "last_utc": "2026-08-11T09:31:42Z",
215- "mean": 0.9890909592611296,
216- "n_pasts": 696,
217- "n_runs": 87,
214+ "last_utc": "2026-08-11T11:15:00Z",
215+ "mean": 0.9885921125497741,
216+ "n_pasts": 704,
217+ "n_runs": 88,
218218 "params": {
219219 "filter": "lowpass",
220220 "high": 3000.0,
@@ -223,18 +223,18 @@
223223 "taps": 101
224224 },
225225 "predicted": 1.04149876351225,
226- "sd": 0.19327795997990374,
227- "se": 0.0073261821663843305
226+ "sd": 0.1934857464468928,
227+ "se": 0.007292268445979362
228228 },
229229 {
230230 "L": 101,
231231 "M": 512,
232- "highres_szego": -4.756237076152649,
232+ "highres_szego": -4.756237076152647,
233233 "id": "lp3000_s8",
234- "last_utc": "2026-08-11T09:32:38Z",
235- "mean": 1.2174560015991787,
236- "n_pasts": 696,
237- "n_runs": 87,
234+ "last_utc": "2026-08-11T11:15:59Z",
235+ "mean": 1.2178512049746675,
236+ "n_pasts": 704,
237+ "n_runs": 88,
238238 "params": {
239239 "filter": "lowpass",
240240 "high": 3000.0,
@@ -243,222 +243,222 @@
243243 "taps": 101
244244 },
245245 "predicted": 1.2631675560846525,
246- "sd": 0.21676534597237676,
247- "se": 0.008216469234868148
246+ "sd": 0.21594557835279501,
247+ "se": 0.008138755210596753
248248 },
249249 {
250250 "L": 8,
251251 "M": 512,
252252 "highres_szego": -0.9529044148193548,
253253 "id": "ma8_s1",
254- "last_utc": "2026-08-11T09:26:04Z",
255- "mean": 0.476712567118438,
256- "n_pasts": 696,
257- "n_runs": 87,
254+ "last_utc": "2026-08-11T11:10:28Z",
255+ "mean": 0.4756553002066619,
256+ "n_pasts": 704,
257+ "n_runs": 88,
258258 "params": {
259259 "filter": "moving-average",
260260 "sigma": 1.0,
261261 "width": 8
262262 },
263263 "predicted": 0.6099987154839898,
264- "sd": 0.20689061137495154,
265- "se": 0.0078421683859097
264+ "sd": 0.20608893288630092,
265+ "se": 0.007767268907143135
266266 },
267267 {
268268 "L": 8,
269269 "M": 512,
270270 "highres_szego": 3.0470955851806454,
271271 "id": "ma8_s16",
272- "last_utc": "2026-08-11T09:26:22Z",
273- "mean": 3.1864208596563532,
274- "n_pasts": 696,
275- "n_runs": 87,
272+ "last_utc": "2026-08-11T11:10:55Z",
273+ "mean": 3.1855259515321985,
274+ "n_pasts": 704,
275+ "n_runs": 88,
276276 "params": {
277277 "filter": "moving-average",
278278 "sigma": 16.0,
279279 "width": 8
280280 },
281281 "predicted": 3.1776500292335506,
282- "sd": 0.27057000627642475,
283- "se": 0.01025592962046446
282+ "sd": 0.26943142187224517,
283+ "se": 0.010154578785024914
284284 },
285285 {
286286 "L": 8,
287287 "M": 512,
288288 "highres_szego": 0.04709558518064521,
289289 "id": "ma8_s2",
290- "last_utc": "2026-08-11T09:26:08Z",
291- "mean": 0.9742782627388559,
292- "n_pasts": 696,
293- "n_runs": 87,
290+ "last_utc": "2026-08-11T11:10:33Z",
291+ "mean": 0.9744649124464835,
292+ "n_pasts": 704,
293+ "n_runs": 88,
294294 "params": {
295295 "filter": "moving-average",
296296 "sigma": 2.0,
297297 "width": 8
298298 },
299299 "predicted": 0.9825176804091631,
300- "sd": 0.099571737280357,
301- "se": 0.00377425696139956
300+ "sd": 0.09940758068398485,
301+ "se": 0.0037465641641563495
302302 },
303303 {
304304 "L": 8,
305305 "M": 512,
306306 "highres_szego": 4.047095585180645,
307307 "id": "ma8_s32",
308- "last_utc": "2026-08-11T09:26:26Z",
309- "mean": 4.087756905476419,
310- "n_pasts": 696,
311- "n_runs": 87,
308+ "last_utc": "2026-08-11T11:11:02Z",
309+ "mean": 4.088120323396473,
310+ "n_pasts": 704,
311+ "n_runs": 88,
312312 "params": {
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314314 "sigma": 32.0,
315315 "width": 8
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317317 "predicted": 4.112486639362294,
318- "sd": 0.2431661818793019,
319- "se": 0.009217190337362527
318+ "sd": 0.24315519625791177,
319+ "se": 0.009164256270599122
320320 },
321321 {
322322 "L": 8,
323323 "M": 512,
324324 "highres_szego": 1.0470955851806452,
325325 "id": "ma8_s4",
326- "last_utc": "2026-08-11T09:26:12Z",
327- "mean": 1.5556434602703157,
328- "n_pasts": 696,
329- "n_runs": 87,
326+ "last_utc": "2026-08-11T11:10:39Z",
327+ "mean": 1.555733689771632,
328+ "n_pasts": 704,
329+ "n_runs": 88,
330330 "params": {
331331 "filter": "moving-average",
332332 "sigma": 4.0,
333333 "width": 8
334334 },
335335 "predicted": 1.5529090070448803,
336- "sd": 0.10379533737643293,
337- "se": 0.003934352109884302
336+ "sd": 0.10348144210272667,
337+ "se": 0.0039001035934048897
338338 },
339339 {
340340 "L": 8,
341341 "M": 512,
342342 "highres_szego": 2.0470955851806454,
343343 "id": "ma8_s8",
344- "last_utc": "2026-08-11T09:26:17Z",
345- "mean": 2.3014930073397046,
346- "n_pasts": 696,
347- "n_runs": 87,
344+ "last_utc": "2026-08-11T11:10:49Z",
345+ "mean": 2.302180771313842,
346+ "n_pasts": 704,
347+ "n_runs": 88,
348348 "params": {
349349 "filter": "moving-average",
350350 "sigma": 8.0,
351351 "width": 8
352352 },
353353 "predicted": 2.3064317412363535,
354- "sd": 0.1477474366594172,
355- "se": 0.005600352133765106
354+ "sd": 0.1473268553574843,
355+ "se": 0.005552589781406099
356356 },
357357 {
358358 "L": 1,
359359 "M": 512,
360360 "highres_szego": 2.047095585180641,
361361 "id": "none_s1",
362- "last_utc": "2026-08-11T09:25:56Z",
363- "mean": 2.105724636425622,
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450- "n_runs": 87,
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451451 "params": {
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455455 "predicted": 5.048034228800837,
456- "sd": 0.3053646902473194,
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458458 }
459459 ],
460460 "estimand": "H(z_{M+1} | z_1..z_M) in bits/sample, for x ~ iid N(0, sigma^2) -> y = h * x -> z = round(y)",
461- "generated": "2026-08-11T09:53:00Z",
461+ "generated": "2026-08-11T11:39:57Z",
462462 "settings": {
463463 "n0": 128,
464464 "pasts_per_run": 8,
@@ -466,5 +466,5 @@
466466 "reps": 8,
467467 "thin": "auto"
468468 },
469- "total_runs": 87
469+ "total_runs": 88
470470 }
runs.jsonlmodified+24−0View file
@@ -2086,3 +2086,27 @@
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